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    1. Member rich!'s Avatar
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      04-21-2020 07:44 AM #251




      even may/june taking a hit down to 16ish. every American gets a free barrel of oil

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    3. Senior Member Sporin's Avatar
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      04-21-2020 09:44 AM #252
      Oil & Gas Bailouts incoming...

      Donald J. Trump
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      We will never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down. I have instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future!
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    4. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      04-21-2020 09:46 AM #253
      Quote Originally Posted by Sporin View Post
      Oil & Gas Bailouts incoming...
      Democrats in Congress won't vote for them.

    5. Member robr2's Avatar
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      04-21-2020 10:23 AM #254
      Quote Originally Posted by JustinCSVT View Post
      Doesn't really effect the Saudis. Brent is still at $25/barrel.

      This hurts Texas more than anything.

      I'm beginning to think the Saudis and Russians purposely flooded the market to hurt US oil producers though.

      Ethical? No.

      A big risk? Yes.

      Worth it? We'll have to see.
      It's small Texas producers who are getting killed. They typically don't have space to store overproduction and most futures contracts for WTI oil are written for delivery to Cushing, OK. They've run out of space there.

      The big producers have space to store the overproduction.

      IMHO, the Saudis wanted to slow down production and Russia tried to flex it's muscle on a weakened SA. SA then went full Karen on Russia, damn the consequences, and they both got hurt. In any case, the ultimate goal of OPEC is to eliminate non-member production.
      Last edited by robr2; 04-21-2020 at 10:26 AM.

    6. Member rich!'s Avatar
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      04-21-2020 10:27 AM #255
      Quote Originally Posted by robr2 View Post
      It's small Texas producers who are getting killed. They typically don't have space to store overproduction and most futures contracts for WTI oil are written for delivery to Cushing, OK. They've run out of space there.

      The big producers have space to store the overproduction.

      IMHO, the Saudis wanted to slow down production and Russia tried to flex it's muscle on a weakened SA. SA then went full Karen on Russia, damn the consequences, and they both got hurt. In any case, the ultimate goal of OPEC is to eliminate non-member production.
      possible meeting may 10th for more cuts

      "OPEC DELEGATES SET TO DISCUSS OIL-MARKET CRISIS IN CONFERENCE CALL TUESDAY--SOURCES"

      "STRANDED SAUDI OIL TANKERS CANCEL U.S. TRIPS, NOW SIT IDLE IN RED SEA, OFFSHORE SINGAPORE-SHIP TRACKER"

    7. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      04-21-2020 11:02 AM #256
      Quote Originally Posted by robr2 View Post
      It's small Texas producers who are getting killed. They typically don't have space to store overproduction and most futures contracts for WTI oil are written for delivery to Cushing, OK. They've run out of space there.

      The big producers have space to store the overproduction.

      IMHO, the Saudis wanted to slow down production and Russia tried to flex it's muscle on a weakened SA. SA then went full Karen on Russia, damn the consequences, and they both got hurt. In any case, the ultimate goal of OPEC is to eliminate non-Saudi production.
      Fixed it for you. The smaller OPEC members like Angola are going to get creamed even harder than Texas shale. Their government budgets are totally dependent on oil, but they are totally dependent on foreign oil firms for their production (unlike the Saudis). Their interests are not remotely aligned with the Saudis, but they stay in because it's the only opportunity for them to even attempt at input.

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      04-27-2020 05:47 PM #257
      Oil tankers parking lot...

      “I am not a Mac user unless under duress.” - John Carmack

    9. 04-27-2020 06:08 PM #258
      Quote Originally Posted by Avus View Post
      Oil tankers parking lot...

      24 oil tankers at the moment. Red dots/arrows would be oil/gas carriers: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...y:33.7/zoom:11
      Americans hate EVs because they grew up with Power Wheels that were glacially slow, ran out of power in 20 minutes and took an entire day to recharge.

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      04-27-2020 06:27 PM #259
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      24 oil tankers at the moment. Red dots/arrows would be oil/gas carriers: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...y:33.7/zoom:11
      Another 8 in the SF Bay waiting to dock @ Richmond and another 88 in the Gulf of Mexico.
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      This forum is more and more of an embarrassment every day...

    11. Member rich!'s Avatar
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      04-28-2020 11:05 AM #260
      Quote Originally Posted by chucchinchilla View Post
      Another 8 in the SF Bay waiting to dock @ Richmond and another 88 in the Gulf of Mexico.
      just in time for hurricane season...

    12. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      04-28-2020 11:25 AM #261
      Interestingly, larger oil company stocks have actually gone up over the last couple of weeks. In a way, I think bad news is good news. A massive storage shortage means shut-in wells, which means production will absolutely crater. Shutting in wells can actually permanently damage production capacity, which may mean higher prices once the economy has restarted and the storage glut has been cleared.

    13. Member rich!'s Avatar
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      04-28-2020 11:28 AM #262
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      Interestingly, larger oil company stocks have actually gone up over the last couple of weeks. In a way, I think bad news is good news. A massive storage shortage means shut-in wells, which means production will absolutely crater. Shutting in wells can actually permanently damage production capacity, which may mean higher prices once the economy has restarted and the storage glut has been cleared.
      sure forward looking but some major players have earnings in next couple of days (some are up 100% from lows)

    14. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      04-28-2020 11:35 AM #263
      Quote Originally Posted by rich! View Post
      sure forward looking but some major players have earnings in next couple of days (some are up 100% from lows)
      Yeah, lots of earnings releases next week too. But I think Q1 earnings are sort of irrelevant at this point.

    15. Member rich!'s Avatar
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      04-28-2020 12:37 PM #264
      map of full tankers


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      04-28-2020 03:06 PM #265
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      Interestingly, larger oil company stocks have actually gone up over the last couple of weeks. In a way, I think bad news is good news. A massive storage shortage means shut-in wells, which means production will absolutely crater. Shutting in wells can actually permanently damage production capacity, which may mean higher prices once the economy has restarted and the storage glut has been cleared.
      Yeah the stock situation is confusing. I think people are buying thinking it's a value and thus raising the price. Also have to put all the money pulled from USO somewhere.

    17. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      04-30-2020 12:06 AM #266
      Looks like the bottom is in for gasoline demand.



      From https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly...-stocks-supply the exact numbers for the last 4 weeks are:
      Gasoline demand (million barrels per day)
      04/24/20 5.860
      04/17/20 5.311
      04/10/20 5.081

      The pretty graph above is the 4-week average, which after 6 or 7 weeks of declines appears to have found its bottom and is on the rise now based on the non-averaged weekly figures above. It's still going to take a long time to reach anything approaching normal, but it does appear based on the figures released today that gasoline demand is modestly picking up again.

    18. 04-30-2020 12:26 AM #267
      Quote Originally Posted by rich! View Post
      map of full tankers

      Fascinating. It's always fun to see what kind of data modern technology is capable of tracking...

      I especially like the ships supposedly deep within the South American continent... Reminds me of the Cotopaxi in Close Encounters...




    19. 04-30-2020 12:36 AM #268
      Quote Originally Posted by boogetyboogety View Post
      I especially like the ships supposedly deep within the South American continent... Reminds me of the Cotopaxi in Close Encounters...

      I heard there are some pretty big rivers in South America.

      But it was probably aliens.
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    20. 04-30-2020 01:06 AM #269
      Quote Originally Posted by Pushrods View Post
      I heard there are some pretty big rivers in South America.

      But it was probably aliens.
      Dammit... So much of my humor depends on having a geographically-illiterate audience...

      (To everyone else... Yes, it's aliens)

      (Or Syrian troublemakers jamming GPS transmissions)

      (No,really... It's aliens)




    21. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      04-30-2020 09:02 AM #270
      Quote Originally Posted by boogetyboogety View Post

      I especially like the ships supposedly deep within the South American continent... Reminds me of the Cotopaxi in Close Encounters...


      Probably the personal fleet of Jeff Bezos.

    22. Senior Member Sporin's Avatar
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      06-06-2020 09:18 AM #271
      OPEC+ Agrees to Extend Output Cuts as Cheats Offer Penance
      Updated on June 6, 2020, 8:46 AM EDT
      • Iraq, Nigeria will compensate for missing their output targets

      • Some observers are skeptical that cuts compliance will improve

      • OPEC+ has agreed on a one-month extension of record output cuts, intended to further support the oil-price recovery.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-offer-penance
      Last edited by Sporin; 06-07-2020 at 09:07 AM.

    23. Senior Member Sporin's Avatar
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      06-07-2020 09:10 AM #272
      Saudi Arabia's oil exports plunge $11 billion in first quarter



      DUBAI (Reuters) - The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports plunged by 21.9% year on year in the first quarter to $40 billion, corresponding to a decline of about $11 billion, official data showed on Sunday.

      Brent crude prices fell more than 60% in the quarter hurt by the coronavirus pandemic and an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia following the collapse in March of talks on further production cuts.

      The decline in oil exports was the main reason behind a 20.7% decline in the value of overall merchandise exports in the first quarter, the General Authority for Statistics said on Sunday.

      Non-oil exports, including chemicals and plastics, fell by 16.5%, it said.

      China was the main destination for Saudi exports in Q1, followed by Japan and India. China was also the main origin for Saudi imports.

      Saudi Arabia posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the quarter as oil revenue fell by 24% to $34 billion.

      Reporting by Davide Barbuscia

    24. 06-23-2020 05:50 AM #273
      The glut is real:

      The International Energy Agency published its latest oil market outlook last week, pushing its quarterly forecast out to the end of 2021 for the first time. It doesn’t think demand will have fully recovered by then. In the final quarter of next year it predicts global oil demand will still be running about 2 million barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels, and more than 4% below where it might reasonably have been expected to be in the absence of the crisis.

      By the end of this month, global stockpiles are expected to be about 2.7 billion barrels above where they were at the end of 2013. That’s nearly four times the excess seen after the first shale boom in early 2017, when oil prices collapsed toward $25 a barrel. That’s an important point of comparison because it was then that Saudi Arabia and others decided that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wouldn’t, or couldn’t, manage the oil market on their own — and the wider OPEC+ group was created, bringing more countries, including Russia, to the table.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...s-are-enormous

    25. Senior Member Sporin's Avatar
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      06-23-2020 06:38 AM #274
      Prices have ticked back up to right around $2/gal (87) in my area and by the sounds of that article, they are likely to level out there for at least the summer, especially as travel demand won't spike like it usually does this time of year.

    26. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      06-23-2020 09:15 AM #275
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      The glut is real:

      The International Energy Agency published its latest oil market outlook last week, pushing its quarterly forecast out to the end of 2021 for the first time. It doesn’t think demand will have fully recovered by then. In the final quarter of next year it predicts global oil demand will still be running about 2 million barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels, and more than 4% below where it might reasonably have been expected to be in the absence of the crisis.

      By the end of this month, global stockpiles are expected to be about 2.7 billion barrels above where they were at the end of 2013. That’s nearly four times the excess seen after the first shale boom in early 2017, when oil prices collapsed toward $25 a barrel. That’s an important point of comparison because it was then that Saudi Arabia and others decided that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wouldn’t, or couldn’t, manage the oil market on their own — and the wider OPEC+ group was created, bringing more countries, including Russia, to the table.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...s-are-enormous
      Production has been plummeting though (Both OPEC and non-OPEC), and those stockpiles aren't building anymore. That's why crude is back into the $40s and we are into backwardation on futures.

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...sh-On-Oil.html

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