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    1. Member
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      01-08-2020 08:03 PM #1
      Tesla is starting 2020 with a record: It's now the highest-valued US automaker ever. The Elon Musk-led automaker's recent stock rally pushed its market value to nearly $85 billion at Tuesday's close, surpassing the $80.8 billion set by Ford in 1999.
      What the h-e-double toothpicks is going on here? Does Wall Street know something we don't? I'm just sorry I didn't buy Tesla stock from day one now

      Tesla (ticker TSLA), whose shares rose $17.52 to $469.06 Tuesday, now has a market value of nearly $85 billion, almost as much as the combined $87 billion market capitalization of Ford Motor (F) and General Motors (GM).

      Gary Black, a leading tobacco analyst for Bernstein in the 1990s and the former chief executive of Aegon Asset Management, isn’t fazed by Tesla’s rising market value.

      “Amazon skeptics asked the same question when AMZN had $85 billion market cap. How could AMZN be worth more than Nordstrom, Kohl’s, Macy’s and Target combined? When a disruptive technology takes out existing competitors, the market discounts all future profits,” Black tweeted Tuesday. He sees Tesla’s U.S. market share rising to 10% in 2024 from 2% now. Black is now a private investor.

      Black said in December that Tesla stock, then around $400, could double.

      In his latest series of tweets, Black said Tesla’s market value is justifiable, writing that the “stock market is a discounting mechanism—looks forward not back.” He thinks Tesla’s annual net income will be $5 billion by 2024 and $15 billion by 2029, against a combined $11 billion annually for Ford and GM now and heading lower.

      Black’s view is Tesla’s earnings per share could hit $10 a share in 2020, against a consensus estimate of around $5 a share, and $27 a share in 2024. At a price-to-earnings ratio of 30, the 2024 earnings would support a stock price of $800 a share. Black thinks that Tesla may set 2020 auto production guidance of 500,000 when it reports fourth-quarter results on Jan. 29, against a Wall Street consensus of 470,000.

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    3. Member Tommietank's Avatar
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      01-08-2020 08:07 PM #2
      It's going to hit $1,000 before 2022.
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      01-08-2020 08:28 PM #3
      Quote Originally Posted by Tommietank View Post
      It's going to hit $1,000 before 2022.
      From what I see here, 2013 is the year it really took off. What was it then, that hooked investors?


    5. Member sunofernest's Avatar
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      01-08-2020 08:49 PM #4
      Quote Originally Posted by antilock View Post
      From what I see here, 2013 is the year it really took off. What was it then, that hooked investors?
      H¥P€

    6. 01-08-2020 09:07 PM #5
      Higher than $420 too.

      Enter Elon dancing:


    7. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      01-09-2020 12:11 AM #6
      Quote Originally Posted by antilock View Post
      From what I see here, 2013 is the year it really took off. What was it then, that hooked investors?
      The Model S came out and was the fastest, quickest, longest range mass-produced electric car in America, with endless promises that this was only the beginning. I mean, he was kinda right if you go back to what he said way back then, which was that they'd be producing 500,000 cars a year by 2020. They just shipped what, 367,000 in 2019 with the Shanghai factory barely producing cars in 2019? They are likely to streamline the Fremont factory even more this year and Shanghai is likely to be cranking out cars by the thousands a week, pushing them over the 500k/yr goal. As long as the Model Y stays on schedule then even if they miss that 500k mark by a little bit in 2020, they are almost sure to go well over 500k by 2021 assuming nothing dire happens to Tesla in the meantime.

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      01-09-2020 07:13 AM #7
      Quote Originally Posted by baboondumdum View Post
      Higher than $420 too.

      Enter Elon dancing:

      I miss Steve Jobs, his black turtle necks, and dad jeans.....

    9. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      01-09-2020 09:40 AM #8
      Tesla is starting 2020 with a record: It's now the highest-valued US automaker ever. The Elon Musk-led automaker's recent stock rally pushed its market value to nearly $85 billion at Tuesday's close, surpassing the $80.8 billion set by Ford in 1999.
      $80.8 billion in 1999 is worth $124.74 billion today. So technically Tesla's value isn't higher than Ford's 1999 value when adjusted for inflation.

    10. 01-09-2020 10:32 AM #9
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      $80.8 billion in 1999 is worth $124.74 billion today. So technically Tesla's value isn't higher than Ford's 1999 value when adjusted for inflation.
      You could also poke holes in this as Tesla isn't just an automaker, but an energy company as well and that should be a part of the valuation.

      Either way, hard to argue against Tesla as a company. They are producing cars profitably, have one new factory up and running with another on the way, have new models that should be coming online with one likely to be the highest selling model, solar roof finally getting close, and energy storage being a high growth market. They are as solid as they have ever been and there doesn't look to be a slowdown in the near future. Musk risked it all on the 3 and the 3 came through. All that said, $500 is probably pushing it and based on hype of all the growth. Q4 will end up being profitable and likely to a fairly high degree. Q1 won't be as strong as the Y will be getting going and some teething issues will happen in Shanghai. That is probably the next best time to buy up some stock as the shorts will have their last stand. I don't see a $1000 future in the next couple years, but 600-700 doesn't seem unreasonable as the Y adds major profitability.

    11. Member ikonomore's Avatar
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      01-09-2020 05:22 PM #10
      Tesla's valuation is a definition of a bubble. Ford and GM who have hundreds of plants, hundreds of thousands of employees are worth less than Tesla. Nope.
      It's basically doubled since October 23rd.

      This is just like the valuation of the dot coms.

    12. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      01-09-2020 11:19 PM #11
      Quote Originally Posted by ikonomore View Post
      Tesla's valuation is a definition of a bubble. Ford and GM who have hundreds of plants, hundreds of thousands of employees are worth less than Tesla. Nope.
      It's basically doubled since October 23rd.

      This is just like the valuation of the dot coms.
      That's what a ton of people have been saying for a very long time but given how fast the China plant went in and the fact that China has already backed off the vast majority of their EV rebates in their plan to eliminate the rebates entirely in 2020, I see another possibility: Tesla could be positioning itself to be one of, if not the largest EV producer in China and thus cement itself as the largest volume EV producer in the world for many, many years to come.

      Musk already secured exemptions from any future tariffs on Tesla exports from Shanghai and Europe is absolutely terrified against putting tariffs on anything Chinese, plus of course the Chinese market will be a ton easier to sell to with those Shanghai Model 3's and Model Y's being functionally domestic cars. Tesla may have just positioned itself in a way to be providing the cars of the future to the entire planet in a way no other automaker can catch up with. It still feels like a moonshot for Tesla to actually pull off such a feat, but I know better than to say anything in business is impossible, especially once you have a powerful ally in China's manufacturing industry.

    13. Member B20VTEC's Avatar
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      01-11-2020 11:30 AM #12
      Quote Originally Posted by ikonomore View Post
      Tesla's valuation is a definition of a bubble. Ford and GM who have hundreds of plants, hundreds of thousands of employees are worth less than Tesla. Nope.
      It's basically doubled since October 23rd.

      This is just like the valuation of the dot coms.
      This won't age well.

    14. 01-13-2020 03:16 PM #13
      Quote Originally Posted by ikonomore View Post
      Tesla's valuation is a definition of a bubble. Ford and GM who have hundreds of plants, hundreds of thousands of employees are worth less than Tesla. Nope.
      It's basically doubled since October 23rd.

      This is just like the valuation of the dot coms.
      Its a wall street hustle like you said, same as dot coms.

      I remember companies that produced nothing and had no product being worth more than say IBM.

      Whether Tesla is sustainable or not without govmt subsidies, carbon tax credits, etc... is another story.

    15. Member ikonomore's Avatar
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      01-14-2020 04:58 PM #14
      Up another 11 billion in market cap in 6 days. $537.92, $469 when thread started.

    16. 01-14-2020 05:09 PM #15
      Quote Originally Posted by ikonomore View Post
      Up another 11 billion in market cap in 6 days. $537.92, $469 when thread started.
      If Model Y production is confirmed for Q1 like is being rumored for the financial call, beating Ford for inflation adjusted might happen shortly after.

    17. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      01-14-2020 07:13 PM #16
      Quote Originally Posted by tincanman99 View Post
      Whether Tesla is sustainable or not without govmt subsidies, carbon tax credits, etc... is another story.
      The full value tax credits ran out in 2018 for Tesla with 2019 being the 50% to 25% tax credit year for them yet it was their top selling year and all indications are that 2020 will be significantly higher. Oh, that's with China having phased out most of their tax credits too and attempting to remove them entirely this year or next. It's a very weird business to be valued so highly, but so far they are selling very well even with the tax credits being reduced or gone now in the major markets. That's with the Model Y and Truck not having shipped yet nor the commercial trucking division getting going either. If they secure enough battery deals in the coming years that other automakers aren't able to get their hands on then they could easily be doing 500,000 to even a million or more vehicles a year in not very long at all.

      Or the whole thing will come crashing down due to any of a huge number of risks to the company. Reading the company identified risks in their annual reports is quite enlightening, but so far they keep beating all the odds anyway.

    18. 01-14-2020 07:19 PM #17
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      That's what a ton of people have been saying for a very long time but given how fast the China plant went in and the fact that China has already backed off the vast majority of their EV rebates in their plan to eliminate the rebates entirely in 2020, I see another possibility: Tesla could be positioning itself to be one of, if not the largest EV producer in China and thus cement itself as the largest volume EV producer in the world for many, many years to come.

      Musk already secured exemptions from any future tariffs on Tesla exports from Shanghai and Europe is absolutely terrified against putting tariffs on anything Chinese, plus of course the Chinese market will be a ton easier to sell to with those Shanghai Model 3's and Model Y's being functionally domestic cars. Tesla may have just positioned itself in a way to be providing the cars of the future to the entire planet in a way no other automaker can catch up with. It still feels like a moonshot for Tesla to actually pull off such a feat, but I know better than to say anything in business is impossible, especially once you have a powerful ally in China's manufacturing industry.
      I don't get it, having a factory in China is some kind of game changer?

    19. Senior Member Mike!'s Avatar
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      01-14-2020 07:55 PM #18
      Quote Originally Posted by texghost View Post
      I don't get it, having a factory in China is some kind of game changer?
      Big help for China domestic market vs imports, opens up possibility of exporting Chinese-made 3s around the world, allowing Fremont to focus on building as many Ys as they can sell. Doesn’t Shanghai nearly double their capacity?

    20. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      01-14-2020 08:46 PM #19
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      Doesn’t Shanghai nearly double their capacity?
      That's the plan, they said Shanghai should add 500,000 to production which yeah, is basically double what they believe the maximum production capability of Fremont is for mass production cars. I make the distinction because Musk has implied that they need to either move the Model S & X to a different site or something if they ever want to get the most out of Fremont. The S & X are apparently too labor intensive to max out the capacity of Fremont. Shanghai won't have that issue since it will only be used for the 3 & Y, at least for the forseable future.

    21. 01-15-2020 09:41 AM #20
      GF3 is a pretty big gamechanger for them. Essentially will double their available production and in the biggest market for EVs. I don't think they will be fully online at 400+k for another year or so, but 800-900k vehicles in 2022 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Work should start on GF4 in Europe within the year, and that is pretty much being funded by credits from Fiat. So yet another factory that should churn out another 3-400k vehicles. Tesla could fairly realistically be ~3 times the size they are now by 2023-2024. They'd still be small (Mazda sized), but having a growth curve that the industry would be envious of. That is where this crazy stock price is coming from. The future growth. They showed they can mass produce an 'affordable' electric car that people want, while pulling out some profit, and being able to fund future growth (GF3 and Y starting early this year).

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      01-15-2020 10:09 AM #21
      While I believe in Tesla I do think this stock price is unsustainable at this time due to the risks they have. I think a large portion of the price increase is short sellers realizing they made a mistake and trying to quickly buy back shares.

      I know a lot of people like to talk about how Tesla isn't making a profit but they are going the Amazon route of not going for current profits in the quest of future growth. Now as they are manufacturing and not a true IT company this takes a lot more capital and yes it is risky. The question will always be will demand remain as they produce more product every year.
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    23. 01-15-2020 11:24 AM #22
      Quote Originally Posted by nemesis099 View Post
      While I believe in Tesla I do think this stock price is unsustainable at this time due to the risks they have. I think a large portion of the price increase is short sellers realizing they made a mistake and trying to quickly buy back shares.

      I know a lot of people like to talk about how Tesla isn't making a profit but they are going the Amazon route of not going for current profits in the quest of future growth. Now as they are manufacturing and not a true IT company this takes a lot more capital and yes it is risky. The question will always be will demand remain as they produce more product every year.
      Classic Wall Street move - the pump and dump. They will raise the price through the ceiling and than yank out all support. The suckers always get in near the peak and than get destroyed when they pull out the support.

      Tech companies are notorious for not making a profit with all their stock price growth being driven by speculation.

      I dont follow Tesla so dont know how its traded. I am assuming that lots of mutual funds/etfs/hedge funds/institutional investors own it.

    24. How do I resize a picture? Cabin Pics's Avatar
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      01-15-2020 11:54 AM #23
      Quote Originally Posted by tincanman99 View Post
      Classic Wall Street move - the pump and dump.
      While I'm sure this is a popular method among men on Wall Street, I'd say it's pretty popular everywhere.
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    25. Senior Member chucchinchilla's Avatar
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      01-15-2020 11:54 AM #24
      Quote Originally Posted by tincanman99 View Post
      Classic Wall Street move - the pump and dump. They will raise the price through the ceiling and than yank out all support. The suckers always get in near the peak and than get destroyed when they pull out the support.

      Tech companies are notorious for not making a profit with all their stock price growth being driven by speculation.

      I dont follow Tesla so dont know how its traded. I am assuming that lots of mutual funds/etfs/hedge funds/institutional investors own it.
      I felt sad yesterday after hearing about the TSLA stock gains thinking with all my following of the auto industry (like we all do) somehow I missed an obvious opportunity. Your post is a good reality check. It's not worth that much, it shouldn't be worth that much, but it's there artificially because investors are pumping it up.
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      01-15-2020 12:21 PM #25
      Quote Originally Posted by Cabin Pics View Post
      While I'm sure this is a popular method among men on Wall Street, I'd say it's pretty popular everywhere.
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