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    1. Member lip's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 12:20 PM #126
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      Banning gas vehicles is a huge undertaking and in all the countries for sure, just like our own, are dysfunctional messes. Again, it's no done deal and yes, there would be push back, especially in the more developed countries.

      You have to appreciate the fact that even with subsidies and favorable regulations that EVs haven't taken hold. A ham fisted ban of competition shows the desperation. Trust, it will be a proper fight, the constituency has a voice and it will be heard. You're not going to make people by EVs in countries where they have the money and the political pull to say no.
      EVs are making slow steady progress. People who drive them like them tend to like them, assuming there is the infrastructure to support them. The people with the money are the people buying the EVs. Cost is coming down dramatically.

      I’d say every other house in my neighborhood has an ev, and double have hybrid. Mind you, I’m in a high density state where petrol is expensive. Still, once or twice a week, I drive 110miles round trip to the office. I take turns with a co-worker who owns a Model S dual motor. The Model S serves up similar levels of performance and range as my CTS-V. For commuting, it has more space, rides very well on its air springs and friggin drives itself in traffic (and at speed, if you trust it). My V costs about $65 dollars to fill where I live. The Tesla, $8.
      Last edited by lip; 12-01-2019 at 12:34 PM.

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    3. 12-01-2019 12:32 PM #127
      Quote Originally Posted by lip View Post
      EVs are making slow steady progress. People who drive them like them tend to like them, assuming there is the infrastructure to support them. The people with the money are the people buying the EVs.
      As a car guy I think it's great if people are enjoying their vehicles, that's always and forever

      Your last two parts in bold are the problem, you're never going to get infrastructure investment by only selling 130,000 units per year in the near lux market.

      Infrastructure would come with widespread adoption and that's just not happening. And it may never. Remember, it's way early in EV development and it's not a sure thing by no stretch.

      And to tie your point into Toyota and even Cadillac, if those two manufacturers lost as much money as Tesla has and also had the high profile failures that Tesla had they would have paid a higher price on capital and stock devaluation. Tesla survives on the hopes and dreams buyers of their stock, it's not like they are a good EV business model.

    4. Member lip's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 12:46 PM #128
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      As a car guy I think it's great if people are enjoying their vehicles, that's always and forever

      Your last two parts in bold are the problem, you're never going to get infrastructure investment by only selling 130,000 units per year in the near lux market.

      Infrastructure would come with widespread adoption and that's just not happening. And it may never. Remember, it's way early in EV development and it's not a sure thing by no stretch.

      And to tie your point into Toyota and even Cadillac, if those two manufacturers lost as much money as Tesla has and also had the high profile failures that Tesla had they would have paid a higher price on capital and stock devaluation. Tesla survives on the hopes and dreams buyers of their stock, it's not like they are a good EV business model.
      Don’t disagree. While I don’t think it’s as bad as a WeWork could have been, last quarter was one of the first productive quarters. The challenge with EVs is what I didn’t mention. A Hyrbid which gets 50mpg and costs way less. Even scarier than that for EVs and Hybrids is a gas or diesel powered car that gets 40-50mpg.


    5. 12-01-2019 12:52 PM #129
      Quote Originally Posted by lip View Post
      Don’t disagree. While I don’t think it’s as bad as a WeWork could have been, last quarter was one of the first productive quarters. The challenge with EVs is what I didn’t mention. A Hyrbid which gets 50mpg and costs way less. Even scarier than that for EVs and Hybrids is a gas or diesel powered car that gets 40-50mpg.

      So true, the competition to EVs are too good, desirable and even cheaper. Game over.

      And we're echoing what others here and even Toyota is saying, hybrids are a good, supported, profitable and desirable platform to pursue in lieu of full bore EV investment. The market just isn't there and may never be for EVs

    6. Member lip's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 01:55 PM #130
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      So true, the competition to EVs are too good, desirable and even cheaper. Game over.

      And we're echoing what others here and even Toyota is saying, hybrids are a good, supported, profitable and desirable platform to pursue in lieu of full bore EV investment. The market just isn't there and may never be for EVs
      Either way, I have never had to commute on a regular basis in my V and need to figure that out. So this thread is relevant. Unfortunately, a Panamera Turbo Hybrid isn’t in the cards.


      Totally spitballing here but INMHO, a few things need to happen for EVs to start taking meaningful market share. 1. Charging infrastructure and charging speed. 2. Efficiency of power grid and power generation. 3. Battery and electric motor efficiency. My guess is by 2030, they could have low double digit marketshare, very much tbd.

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      12-01-2019 02:28 PM #131
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      EVs will struggle for decades because the tech, infrastructure and consumer taste aren't trending it's way.
      Infrastructure isn't trending that way? It's easy to make statements when you choose to be totally oblivious.

      Not even ten years ago, outside of California, there was literally not a single charger to be found anywhere in the USA.

      The network has exploded in the past five years, this is what it looks like now, and more stations are opening up daily.

      Last edited by Dubveiser; 12-01-2019 at 02:38 PM.

    8. 12-01-2019 03:10 PM #132
      Quote Originally Posted by Dubveiser View Post
      Infrastructure isn't trending that way? It's easy to make statements when you choose to be totally oblivious.

      Not even ten years ago, outside of California, there was literally not a single charger to be found anywhere in the USA.

      The network has exploded in the past five years, this is what it looks like now, and more stations are opening up daily.

      You have to go back ten years huh? And the network exploded huh? That's a cute map but EV infrastructure is still a pipe dream and has in now way "ariived", lol.

      Lest you forget even EV fans have posted stories of not finding a place to charge. Oh, and that was this year.

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      12-01-2019 04:22 PM #133
      Quote Originally Posted by Dubveiser View Post
      Infrastructure isn't trending that way? It's easy to make statements when you choose to be totally oblivious.

      Not even ten years ago, outside of California, there was literally not a single charger to be found anywhere in the USA.

      The network has exploded in the past five years, this is what it looks like now, and more stations are opening up daily.

      I guess if you use big enough stickers it looks like the U.S. if flooded with chargers. Maybe a more realistic view would show otherwise (with small sticker/pins)
      Quote Originally Posted by cartalk
      "As near as I could tell, the car was built from compressed rust."

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      12-01-2019 04:58 PM #134
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      You have to go back ten years huh? And the network exploded huh? That's a cute map but EV infrastructure is still a pipe dream and has in now way "ariived", lol.

      Lest you forget even EV fans have posted stories of not finding a place to charge. Oh, and that was this year.
      I never said the current infrastructure has "arrived" nor do I think it's currently adequate for mass ev adoption, I totally agree with you in that point.

      I was replying to the comment where you said EV infrastructure isn't trending that way, which is completely false.

      A+ though for always misinterpreting everything and switching up your arguments to keep your trolling game going.

    11. I need new ones NeverEnoughCars's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 05:03 PM #135
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      You have to go back ten years huh? And the network exploded huh?
      How long did it take for ICE refueling stations to become prevalent?
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
      Pedantry: winning arguments through exasperation since 1651. An Old World Tradition!
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    12. 12-01-2019 05:12 PM #136
      Quote Originally Posted by Dubveiser View Post
      I never said the current infrastructure has "arrived" nor do I think it's currently adequate for mass ev adoption, I totally agree with you in that point.

      I was replying to the comment w or adequate here you said EV infrastructure isn't trending that way, which is completely false.

      A+ though for always misinterpreting everything and switching up your arguments to keep your trolling game going.
      It's not trolling to point out that yes, the infrastructure isn't there and won't be because there's not enough demand driving it.

      To the point you made yourself and that I agree with, the minuscule gains on EV infrastructure in the last ten years is small, to say it's "trending " isn't accurate when on the other hand you agree it's completely inadequate. It's not trending, it's not even keeping pace.

      It ties back to the OP, Toyota and the government can't commit because the numbers don't add up.

      Take away the bluster and I think we're actually on the same page.

    13. 12-01-2019 05:20 PM #137
      Quote Originally Posted by NeverEnoughCars View Post
      How long did it take for ICE refueling stations to become prevalent?
      You don't have to go backwards to make an argument, you can look at it right now.

      All US EV sales of all models combined garnered a total of 361,307 units. California made up 153,442 of those units. EV infrastructure investment countrywide will never occur as long as these things remains true.

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      12-01-2019 06:18 PM #138
      Also, for people looking for hard data on automobile adoption- here's data for the adoption rates of various big techs:

      https://ourworldindata.org/technology-adoption

      Doing some more digging.... it looks like cars went from 0 to that 10% in about 15 years, which sounds similar to EVs but doesn't at all take into account the lack of practical alternatives to cars at that time, as well as the complete lack of govt support and available financing for cars. The transition happened purely because people wanted cars.... nothing more nothing less.

    15. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 06:30 PM #139
      Quote Originally Posted by lip View Post
      My V costs about $65 dollars to fill where I live. The Tesla, $8.
      This is actually a problem for EV infrastructure. There just isn't a lot of money to be made in building and maintaining EV infrastructure compared to gas stations. In 5-10 minutes a gas station can sell a single vehicle $50 worth of gas and a few more $ worth of stuff from the store. It might take an EV 30-45 minutes to charge and they spend how much on the charge - maybe $10? Maybe they spend some money at a restaurant but that probably isn't going into the pocket of the EV charging infrastructure owner. So there isn't a big incentive to build up the infrastructure and not a lot of incentive to maintain it.

      Tesla at least has incentive to build out their own infrastructure because it helps them sell cars. But they actually have little incentive to maintain their completed infrastructure. Especially if the cars that are charging on it are getting free charging.

    16. 12-01-2019 08:16 PM #140
      Smart folks with high positions have "faith" and "hope" in the hydrogen dream. There's zero hydrogen fueling stations in NC and the three hydrogen vehicles below are expensive as fek, but read the similarities between EVs and what the hydrogen proponents are saying below. Does anyone here believe in hydrogen's future like they do?:

      Motor Trend

      2019 Honda Clarity $59,410
      2019 Hyundai Nexo $59,345-$62,845
      2019 Toyota Mirai $59,455


      The cons of Hydrogen:

      It can be pumped into a vehicle quicker than you can force a commensurate number of electrons into a chemical battery, but the energy itself is only as clean as the source/method of its production, and in the current landscape, hydrogen's well-to-wheels cleanliness/efficiency picture isn't much prettier than that of the national electric grid. And because a fuel cell creates water, operation at very low temperatures can be very tricky.

      As Hyundai's*vice president and head of fuel cell group, Sae Hoon Kim*is as convinced of hydrogen's inevitability as I am of its improbability. He cites the 60 million or so tons of hydrogen that are currently being produced and safely distributed globally per year for industrial use in the United States. He's convinced that hydrogen is the most viable clean energy propulsion mode for vehicles sized between passenger cars and ships or planes (for which biofuels make the most sense) in terms of onboard packaging and refueling logistics.

      Toyota senior engineer Jackie Birdsall*is equally evangelistic in refuting my fuel-cell beefs. By way of assuaging my leakage concern, she notes that Toyota's modern laser-welded plastic tank linings, extensively wrapped in both carbon fiber and fiberglass (leveraging a historic strength of the Toyoda Loom Works) suffer very little leakage when parked over time. And, she notes, if the tank requires venting, it's possible to process the hydrogen through the fuel cell to charge the battery or condition the interior, rather than venting it to the atmosphere. Another FCEV benefit over BEVs she's quick to remind me of: they suffer less efficiency loss in cold weather because the fuel-cell stack can generate sufficient heat to warm the cabin without resistance heating in many cases.

      Both of these fuel-cell proselytizers see the challenges facing the technology as a matter of two chickens and two eggs: the hydrogen fueling infrastructure won't happen until there's stronger demand for road-use hydrogen. Big fuel-cell trucks could create sufficient hydrogen fuel demand, but low fleet turnover means it'll take forever for new semi-tractor production bring down the cost of the fuel cell stacks. Each little car uses way less H2 than a truck, but the they sell in large enough volumes to establish economies of scale in fuel-cell stack production.

      Hydrogen stations will soon be opening in the CARB-compliance states in the northeast, and California has bold plans to increase the fuel's availability there as well. The U.S. remains way behind Korea (expecting 86 by year end), Japan (roughly 100), and Germany (around 60), however. In view of this burgeoning global hydrogen infrastructure, Toyota is preparing to produce 30,000 new Mirais per year—well up from the grand total of 6,000 first-gen cars produced to date. Maybe we*are*at last on the brink of a hydrogen future after all.

      https://www.motortrend.com/cars/hyun...arison-review/

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      12-01-2019 08:26 PM #141
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      This is actually a problem for EV infrastructure. There just isn't a lot of money to be made in building and maintaining EV infrastructure compared to gas stations. In 5-10 minutes a gas station can sell a single vehicle $50 worth of gas and a few more $ worth of stuff from the store. It might take an EV 30-45 minutes to charge and they spend how much on the charge - maybe $10? Maybe they spend some money at a restaurant but that probably isn't going into the pocket of the EV charging infrastructure owner. So there isn't a big incentive to build up the infrastructure and not a lot of incentive to maintain it.

      Tesla at least has incentive to build out their own infrastructure because it helps them sell cars. But they actually have little incentive to maintain their completed infrastructure. Especially if the cars that are charging on it are getting free charging.
      Not so fast.

      Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

      As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

      With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.

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      12-01-2019 08:36 PM #142
      Makes sense as hybrids are the sweet spot and it would be more efficient to produce a bunch of hybrids with smaller batteries, especially if the manufacturers actually produced something that is more normal looking SUVs rather than the super expensive EVs that people can't really afford or look funky.

      Can't really sell any EVs is there really aren't any real options or out of reach of most people.

      But Hydrogen?

    19. Member Meroving1an's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 09:15 PM #143
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      This is actually a problem for EV infrastructure. There just isn't a lot of money to be made in building and maintaining EV infrastructure compared to gas stations. In 5-10 minutes a gas station can sell a single vehicle $50 worth of gas and a few more $ worth of stuff from the store. It might take an EV 30-45 minutes to charge and they spend how much on the charge - maybe $10?
      Right, taken another way: people aren't going to flock to EVs if charging them at "stations" is going to cost roughly the same per amount of energy as petrol (to make it profitable to build out these stations).

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      12-01-2019 09:31 PM #144
      Quote Originally Posted by Dubveiser View Post
      Not so fast.

      Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

      As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

      With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.
      The problem with this post is it takes way less than 5 minutes to pump 12 gallons of gas. In the US pumps are limited to 10GPM and I've definitely seen flow close to that. So now we are talking $1.50 of profit per minute vs $0.47 from the charger. And I'd wager even outside of the sheer # of ICEVs vs EVs just the long nature of charging limits utilization. Can't use a home charger at work or vice versa. Odds are very low someone's gonna sit and charge in a closed grocery store parking lot for a couple of hours etc. So the ROI on installing a pay to charge station is wonky

    21. Member 2 doors's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 09:40 PM #145
      People keep talking about no infrastructure for EVs. And here I thought the Amish were only in small isolated pockets of the country! I don’t know about you guys, but I have electricity at my house. But hey, it’s a good thing Toyota’s pursuing that hydrogen car. That stuff is everywhere!

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      12-01-2019 09:53 PM #146
      Quote Originally Posted by 2 doors View Post
      People keep talking about no infrastructure for EVs. And here I thought the Amish were only in small isolated pockets of the country! I don’t know about you guys, but I have electricity at my house. But hey, it’s a good thing Toyota’s pursuing that hydrogen car. That stuff is everywhere!
      How about people who street park or live in multi family buildings? Sure EV infrastructure is more decentralized but it's hardly as accessible for everyone as a gas station.

    23. Member bmann's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 01:07 AM #147
      How you've all let Burnette get away with 6 pages of concern trolling is beyond me ...
      Do not be persecuted by the pompous fedora, balanced by the equilibrium, fortified by the
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    24. 12-02-2019 06:20 AM #148
      Quote Originally Posted by bmann View Post
      How you've all let Burnette get away with 6 pages of concern trolling is beyond me ...
      The funny part for me is that if you're a fan if a thing it would look like people would be more aware of it. I get it, but you have to be honest about the negatives and not ignore the or say they're not there, because a blind fan is IMO trolling.

      That doesn't in any way take away the fact that people enjoy EVs and that for them they make sense. As I've posted, I think that's great. That's the part we have in common, the car people part.

      I encourage people to read the Motor Trend link about hydrogen fuel cells, Toyota and Hyundai are high on them. If hydrogen seems like a crazy idea that wint take you see why some people also believe the same with EVs. And that's pretty much what the thread's about, Toyota feels like many, that EVs aren't the way. But IMO hydrogen seems just as crazy. But as you read it, it does have some pluses that EVs don't.

      https://www.motortrend.com/cars/hyun...arison-review/
      Last edited by Burnette; 12-02-2019 at 06:57 AM.

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      12-02-2019 08:15 AM #149
      And to be clear, I think EVs have a place in the automotive landscape and fight against climate change, and I myself could do one if the right one came along. I'm a prime candidate (private parking, very regular driving pattern, could probably talk my old bosses into putting some chargers up at work)

      But that's a totally different thing from banning the sale of ICEVs (including hybrids???) whether or not the infrastructure, technology and most importantly market are ready. EVihadists make more cautious folks sound like bad guys for even daring to question the viability of ending ICEV sales in 10 years. It's ridiculous.

    26. Member Sortafast's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 08:18 AM #150
      Quote Originally Posted by bmann View Post
      How you've all let Burnette get away with 6 pages of concern trolling is beyond me ...
      I know, right? No idea why people keep replying to that guy.

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