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    1. Member ice4life's Avatar
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      11-30-2019 09:20 PM #76
      Quote Originally Posted by antilock View Post
      Maybe if Toyota had the same kind of diesel scandal VW had, they'd feel more of a need for pure electrics. It sure seems VW feels that way now.
      Yeah as the article alluded to and as I said, no way in bat**** hell VW would be going full ev right now if they didn't get caught by that lowly researcher by accident.

      They would be selling Atlas and Tiguan TDIs in the US like damn hotcakes for the next ten years at a minimum, and they would be a hell of a lot better to drive.

      The ev route is a farse. As is their stance to stand behind CARB. Just because they are putting on a show, does not mean they are putting on the right one.

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      11-30-2019 09:24 PM #77
      Quote Originally Posted by Silver_arrow12! View Post
      The argument is about technology and infrastructure maturing, horses to autos is one of thousands of examples in the last 100 years.

      Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
      Just because horses to autos worked doesn't mean ICEVs to EVs will work. You might as well have picked any technology- gas to electric lights, digital to film cameras, land line phones to cell phones- it's all equally arbitrary and totally irrelevant. People ditching horses for cars a hundred years ago has zero bearing on the success of EVs.

    4. 11-30-2019 09:34 PM #78
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Just because horses to autos worked doesn't mean ICEVs to EVs will work. You might as well have picked any technology- gas to electric lights, digital to film cameras, land line phones to cell phones- it's all equally arbitrary and totally irrelevant. People ditching horses for cars a hundred years ago has zero bearing on the success of EVs.
      We know EV's work, there are millions on the roads.

      But they won't replace iC until the technology and infrastructure mature.

      TCL is a cesspool of trolling and/or stupidity. Have fun.

      Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

    5. Member HI SPEED's Avatar
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      11-30-2019 09:59 PM #79
      There is no demand for milquetoast small penalty box EVs. If they made a performance Lexus to replace the GS, or a halo car like the Supra in EV, It would sell.

      If we can glean anything from Tesla, it is that the compliance car EVs were targeting the wrong market segments.

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      11-30-2019 10:16 PM #80
      Nobody wants ICE GSs, and Toyota had to rebadge a Z4 to justify a new Supra... so EV versions of either would be 100% stillborn

      What they need to make are $20-30K Corolla/Camry/RAV-4 EVs with decent power and range. Which is basically impossible at this point in time, and possibly even if batteries hit the magic $100/kWh threshold

    7. 11-30-2019 10:20 PM #81
      Quote Originally Posted by HI SPEED View Post
      There is no demand for milquetoast small penalty box EVs. If they made a performance Lexus to replace the GS, or a halo car like the Supra in EV, It would sell.

      If we can glean anything from Tesla, it is that the compliance car EVs were targeting the wrong market segments.
      There's one of the EV dilemmas though. EVs would need major volume sales to gain infrastructure investment viability. To get to that kind of volume you need all vehicles, the small vehicles but even more importantly midsize affordable sedans and CUVs.

      Selling mainly lux models will do nothing to help on the infrastructure investment side because it won't generate the sales numbers needed to move the needle.

      If we've learned anything from Tesla is that you can compete in a premium niche segment and lose money doing it but you can't reach the broader market and gain high volume sales with that model.

    8. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      11-30-2019 10:22 PM #82
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      At the risk of being labeled a spammy troll... even Jalopnik is beginning to sour on the practicality of EVs:

      https://jalopnik.com/heres-the-main-...ork-1840110802



      https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-happ...can-1832151810

      I'm on vacation now and we are heading back tomorrow... but I'm already thinking of getting gas tonight to get ahead of the crowds. We can't charge from our AirBnB. This would suck
      Day 2 @ same location.


    9. 11-30-2019 10:26 PM #83
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Nobody wants ICE GSs, and Toyota had to rebadge a Z4 to justify a new Supra... so EV versions of either would be 100% stillborn

      What they need to make are $20-30K Corolla/Camry/RAV-4 EVs with decent power and range. Which is basically impossible at this point in time, and possibly even if batteries hit the magic $100/kWh threshold
      Exactly. Whenever someone brings up Tesla as a model to follow I laugh because Tesla bleeds money and are locked in a premium market, they can't grow much in that segment.

      The bread and butter is downmarket and EVs cannot compete in the twenty to thirty grand ranges.

    10. Senior Member Sporin's Avatar
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      11-30-2019 11:45 PM #84
      Quote Originally Posted by NeverEnoughCars View Post
      So you never make sure to fill up before a big event?
      You just drive till the light comes on and hope?
      I rarely let my vehicle drop below half a tank in daily driving due to places I have lived and the thread of power outages during storms. No power, no pumps.
      ??

      I live in rural New England and there’s probably 30 gas stations within 30 miles. No hoping needed.

      Baring a major weather event, yeah, I wait until the light comes on then go get gas. 30 years of driving in dozens of cars and that’s how I’ve always done it and we’ve never run out of gas even once (and we drive 20k+ miles per year).

    11. 12-01-2019 12:11 AM #85
      Cadillac has it's own bucket of ills right now but this from April 2019 echoes what we've been saying in TCL for years about EVs:

      "Speaking to Automobile in a recent interview, de Nysschen said that many EVs being sold today wouldn’t be approved by the product bosses at their respective manufacturers if they had internal combustion engines, as they aren’t profitable enough and sometimes make no money at all.
      “(The demand for EVs is) growing, but companies are having to commit billions, and none of these EV entries would pass the acid test applied for project approval in their conventional portfolios,” he said. “They will all fail miserably.”

      Nevermind the fact that it’s hard to turn a profit on these vehicles – many consumers don’t want to buy them in the first place. Automakers are investing billions in electrification, both to help drive up stock prices and to avoid being left behind when it comes to engineering prowess, at a time when very little customers want to buy EVs. The same is true for AI and autonomous vehicles, de Nysschen said.
      “You also have to deal, obviously, with artificial intelligence and autonomous-vehicle technology. You have to get your arms around developing the capabilities, the technical ability, and competitive products in the zero-emission space, an area where there is still very little consumer demand.”


      Read more: http://gmauthority.com/blog/2019/04/...#ixzz66pCYCeKz


      Once you look at where EVs really are in the market from an honest and realistic perspective you can see where Toyota has figured out that they have plenty of time to explore other avenues.

    12. Member HI SPEED's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 01:51 AM #86
      The thing is that if there isn't a market for high volume EVs why not make them Halo cars, for niche markets?

      The only real try at this by domestic manufacturers, was the Cadillac EV, which was a disaster from the second it was concieved. I can't think of something less likely to succeed then a $75,000 2 door FWD egg.

      You can do the R&D necessary. Comply with California regulations, and not get left behind when the time comes for EVs to have the demand.

      The two main issues EVs face is the price of the batteries, and the availability of charging infrastructure.

      Every day the batteries get cheaper, and a couple new charging locations open up. At some point those 2 pain points will no longer be a barrier to entry.

      Ford should be lauded, for their EV. It is the closest anyone has got to something desirable for a price people can afford. It has performance, it has lots of tech, and most importantly it has panache.

      Chances are the margins will be very slim at first due to the battery pack. However with economies of scale that price is bound to decrease over time, and suddenly those margins look pretty good, especially when factoring in the lower labor cost to assemble, and the lower payouts for warranty claims in the future.

      If you only look at things in the immediate future then yes today there are some huge barriers to wide adoption of EVs. However I am still convinced it has been the shape, design, economy car amenities, at entry level luxury pricing, and most importantly total lack of marketing dollars spent on EVs that have made the demand what it is.

      Manufacturers are pointing fingers in every direction but the mirror, about demand for EVs when there are zero other compelling EVs on the market besides Tesla.

    13. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 01:52 AM #87
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Can you give us an exact date and time? And if you have one why haven't any actual OEMs corroborrated it?
      Don’t be ridiculous.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
      Proletariat, Bourgeoise - Everybody smellin' my potpourri...

    14. Geriatric Member BRealistic's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 02:05 AM #88
      Quote Originally Posted by got-rice View Post
      Toyota’s sales and marketing chief says there’s no demand for EVs

    15. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 02:08 AM #89
      Quote Originally Posted by ice4life View Post
      Yeah as the article alluded to and as I said, no way in bat**** hell VW would be going full ev right now if they didn't get caught by that lowly researcher by accident.

      They would be selling Atlas and Tiguan TDIs in the US like damn hotcakes for the next ten years at a minimum, and they would be a hell of a lot better to drive.

      The ev route is a farse. As is their stance to stand behind CARB. Just because they are putting on a show, does not mean they are putting on the right one.
      So now it’s somehow the “lowly researcher’s” fault that they got caught? THAT’S what you’re saying? VW has nobody to blame but themselves and their arrogance. It was stupid, they got caught and they’ve paid dearly for it, worldwide.

      Also, it’s “farce”.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
      Proletariat, Bourgeoise - Everybody smellin' my potpourri...

    16. Member lip's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 02:25 AM #90
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      Exactly. Whenever someone brings up Tesla as a model to follow I laugh because Tesla bleeds money and are locked in a premium market, they can't grow much in that segment.

      The bread and butter is downmarket and EVs cannot compete in the twenty to thirty grand ranges.
      While I question Tesla’s long term viability their most recent published fiscal results suggest that they’re gaining traction. As for the people ripping Tesla, I wonder how many have actually driven their products. Also, GM is selling Bolts in the low 30s, pretty decent product.

      EVs make sense under certain circumstances. Saying there is no market is makes name wonder if this guy is in denial, sort of reminds me of Blockbuster; disruption? This is a fad... It’s also possible that they’ve placed their bets on hybrid tech, which I don’t think is horrible idea at this stage. Plug-in hybrid seems like the best compromise for most.

    17. Member Galrot's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 07:36 AM #91
      Quote Originally Posted by ice4life View Post
      The ev route is a farse. As is their stance to stand behind CARB. Just because they are putting on a show, does not mean they are putting on the right one.
      Given the number of countries that have said they are going to phase out ICE cars, I don't see how that could be true. Many places would probably still swear to ICE cars, but there should be a fairly large markets for EVs alongside them at the very least.

    18. 12-01-2019 08:47 AM #92
      Quote Originally Posted by HI SPEED View Post
      The thing is that if there isn't a market for high volume EVs why not make them Halo cars, for niche markets?

      The only real try at this by domestic manufacturers, was the Cadillac EV, which was a disaster from the second it was concieved. I can't think of something less likely to succeed then a $75,000 2 door FWD egg.

      You can do the R&D necessary. Comply with California regulations, and not get left behind when the time comes for EVs to have the demand.

      The two main issues EVs face is the price of the batteries, and the availability of charging infrastructure.

      Every day the batteries get cheaper, and a couple new charging locations open up. At some point those 2 pain points will no longer be a barrier to entry.

      Ford should be lauded, for their EV. It is the closest anyone has got to something desirable for a price people can afford. It has performance, it has lots of tech, and most importantly it has panache.

      Chances are the margins will be very slim at first due to the battery pack. However with economies of scale that price is bound to decrease over time, and suddenly those margins look pretty good, especially when factoring in the lower labor cost to assemble, and the lower payouts for warranty claims in the future.

      If you only look at things in the immediate future then yes today there are some huge barriers to wide adoption of EVs. However I am still convinced it has been the shape, design, economy car amenities, at entry level luxury pricing, and most importantly total lack of marketing dollars spent on EVs that have made the demand what it is.

      Manufacturers are pointing fingers in every direction but the mirror, about demand for EVs when there are zero other compelling EVs on the market besides Tesla.
      There's more than two main issues in the negative for EVs. As you state , price and infrastructure are there and huge, but so are poor resale and the biggest, no demand.

      And again, Tesla is a poor model. They compete in the premium segment and as I've posted you won't gain unit volune there.

      And be truthful, outside the panacea states where Tesla is aided by regs they are almost mon existent in most states, not because people don't know about Tesla but because they make zero sense for them and frankly they don't want them.

      It's the equivalent of saying Ford and Chrvy couldn't sell sedans because they didn't get the word out about them. Wrong, people are aware but for the reasons you and I posted they pass on EVs just as they passed on domestic sedans. They didn't want them.
      Last edited by Burnette; 12-01-2019 at 09:13 AM.

    19. 12-01-2019 09:12 AM #93
      Quote Originally Posted by lip View Post
      While I question Tesla’s long term viability their most recent published fiscal results suggest that they’re gaining traction. As for the people ripping Tesla, I wonder how many have actually driven their products. Also, GM is selling Bolts in the low 30s, pretty decent product.

      EVs make sense under certain circumstances. Saying there is no market is makes name wonder if this guy is in denial, sort of reminds me of Blockbuster; disruption? This is a fad... It’s also possible that they’ve placed their bets on hybrid tech, which I don’t think is horrible idea at this stage. Plug-in hybrid seems like the best compromise for most.
      There's an EV market, it's there and tiny. The problem for EVs is that there's no large scale demand. Toyota has made a reasonable decision to punt. They aren't missing out on anything in the small EV market today or the next decade.

      Our market sold close to 17 million total vehicle units in 2018. The Chevy Bolt sold a total of 18,019 units. For the year. As I posted earlier, in NC in 2018, total of all EVs sold was a whopping 4,712 units. And in Minnesota it was a paltry 2,853 units. Take every EV sold combined and you're still looking at just over three hundred grand per anum. So yes, EVs niche and very low volume. To the point, around here and most of the country they're almost non existent.

      I think you're right in your post and so is Toyota in that hybrids are a good approach in the current market and even further down the road.

      And I view EVs sales in masse as just as much a pipe dream as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles doing it, but after reading about hydrogen it has a lot more pluses going for it. I have more faith that Toyota can figure it out than I do in Volkswagen making, a good EV, marketing and selling it here in any real volumes.

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      12-01-2019 09:16 AM #94
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Can you give us an exact date and time? And if you have one why haven't any actual OEMs corroborrated it?
      Don’t be ridiculous.
      How am I being ridiculous? You said EV viability is coming fast. Ok, how fast?

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      12-01-2019 09:22 AM #95
      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by ice4life View Post
      The ev route is a farse. As is their stance to stand behind CARB. Just because they are putting on a show, does not mean they are putting on the right one.
      Given the number of countries that have said they are going to phase out ICE cars, I don't see how that could be true. Many places would probably still swear to ICE cars, but there should be a fairly large markets for EVs alongside them at the very least.
      Just because countries propose ICE bans doesn't mean people will go along or the market will be ready when the time comes. A policy with good intentions can still be unrealistic and poorly thought out. Plus I'd wager most of the politicians who signed these proposals into law will be long gone in 10 years. They get the credit for an idea without actually being responsible for its implementation

    22. 12-01-2019 09:27 AM #96
      Truth is, in sales with every new thing it's a true gamble as it whether it will sell.

      It wasn't that long ago that deisel was a real thing and it was well established, price competitive with infrastructure.

      EVs will struggle for decades because the tech, infrastructure and consumer taste aren't trending it's way.

      And EVs indeed may never take hold. Taking an honest look at the barriers they have a combination of power units seems way more likely.

    23. Member Galrot's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 09:34 AM #97
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Just because countries propose ICE bans doesn't mean people will go along or the market will be ready when the time comes.
      It don't matter if people are ready though if the alternatives they are ready for won't exist anymore. Then they either start getting ready or alternatively just stop buying cars.
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      A policy with good intentions can still be unrealistic and poorly thought out. Plus I'd wager most of the politicians who signed these proposals into law will be long gone in 10 years. They get the credit for an idea without actually being responsible for its implementation
      Who gets the credit or not or how well thought out it is won't make ICE cars anymore available though.

    24. Member
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      12-01-2019 09:41 AM #98
      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Just because countries propose ICE bans doesn't mean people will go along or the market will be ready when the time comes.
      It don't matter if people are ready though if the alternatives they are ready for won't exist anymore. Then they either start getting ready or alternatively just stop buying cars.
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      A policy with good intentions can still be unrealistic and poorly thought out. Plus I'd wager most of the politicians who signed these proposals into law will be long gone in 10 years. They get the credit for an idea without actually being responsible for its implementation
      Who gets the credit or not or how well thought out it is won't make ICE cars anymore available though.
      I guess it depends on the level of the ban. If it's a ban on new ICE sales then people can just buy used ICEVs. If it's a total ban... God bless and good luck. Most people can't afford new ICEVs so the idea of forcing them to throw away perfectly good cars to buy new ones is ridiculous. Almost feels more like it's about exerting control rather than doing any actual problems

    25. Member Galrot's Avatar
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      12-01-2019 09:53 AM #99
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I guess it depends on the level of the ban. If it's a ban on new ICE sales then people can just buy used ICEVs. If it's a total ban... God bless and good luck. Most people can't afford new ICEVs so the idea of forcing them to throw away perfectly good cars to buy new ones is ridiculous. Almost feels more like it's about exerting control rather than doing any actual problems
      It's the phase out of the sales of ICE cars we are talking about here. I see that apparently Sri Lanka will ban all ICE cars, but the rest of the countries are only talking about the sales of new cars while some cities are talking about banning the usage of them inside their boundaries.

      I suspect for most people it will be seen as less of a sacrifice to go from new ICE cars to new EV cars, than it will be seen as go from new ICE cars to some Cuba-esque car market where the same old ICE cars are circulated around. I don't think most people outside of TLC are that opposed to EVs.

    26. 12-01-2019 10:01 AM #100
      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      Given the number of countries that have said they are going to phase out ICE cars, I don't see how that could be true. Many places would probably still swear to ICE cars, but there should be a fairly large markets for EVs alongside them at the very least.
      The example of small market countries banning al gas vehicles doesn't move the needle though. Who gives two feks about Sri Lanka's small annual auto take?

      As far as people being opposed to EVs, your example of countries having to resort to a ban is proof that they too have consumers in opposition to EVs.

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