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    1. How do I resize a picture? Cabin Pics's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 11:31 AM #226
      Quote Originally Posted by tbvvw View Post
      The gov agency probably has more to do with that than pure market choice. As for more than Tesla, sure, I know. For me, my driving habits, my family of 6, product variety, the cost...I'll pass for now. When a base Model X gets to within ~$10K of a loaded Yukon (that I also own)...I'll look again. Right now it's about $29K more - base X vs loaded Yukon.
      Same.

      When an EV offers the same comfort and range as a gas counterpart for the same price, it'll be worth looking at.

      Right now you're sacrificing range, and how much vehicle you're getting for cost. No thanks.
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      Quote Originally Posted by cockerpunk View Post
      maybe its just me, but i wouldnt put anything in the circle of "unrealistic" when it comes to sex.

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    3. Member Chris_V's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 11:33 AM #227
      Quote Originally Posted by tbvvw View Post
      The gov agency probably has more to do with that than pure market choice.
      How? They don't have EV parking here or EV incentives. It's Social Security and just regular employees. There are a few Leafs, Bolts, Volts, and other EVs, too. But I still see no advertising of them.
      "Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection"

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      12-03-2019 11:38 AM #228
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      How? They don't have EV parking here or EV incentives. It's Social Security and just regular employees. There are a few Leafs, Bolts, Volts, and other EVs, too. But I still see no advertising of them.
      Ok, thought you meant gov agency company cars. But as for your Teslas are like Camry's here...I think you're embellishing/exaggerating a bit. I know your area...I have 2 brothers in Severna Park for the last 35 yrs. I grew up in Bowie. You don't want to take that bet.

      Edit: I looked. Tesla will deliver about the same count of all 3 cars globally as Toyota will sell Camrys in the US alone. ~360K to 332K.
      Last edited by tbvvw; 12-03-2019 at 12:05 PM.

    5. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 11:45 AM #229
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Again, we have no idea what the timeline is or what will happen with batteries. As more and more manufacturers ramp up EV production, battery prices could hit a floor well above the magic $100/kWh the industry has spoken to. Autonomous vehicles could upend transportation completely. Etc. If someone could make reliable predictions about the future they wouldn't be here schlepping on TCL, they'd be a ****ing billionaire.

      So no the fact that ICEVs displaced horses or some other completely unrelated technology with no govt subsidies adopted quickly has zero bearings on the future success and viability of EVs.
      Of course you do know how the future will pan out. We'll all be driving gasoline powered cars for the next 100 years, because reasons.

      Show me a technology that hasn't gotten cheaper and cheaper over the decades, including automobiles. Our cars are light years ahead of what they were building in the 1950s, yet have far more exotic materials, building techniques that didn't exist at the time, systems installed as standard equipment that people couldn't even fathom back then, performance that would leave them in the dust, passive safety that makes them look like the tin cans they are, active safety systems that would be incomprehensible to their engineers, and computers with more power than the entire world had at the time.

      Do you honestly think that the same won't happen with batteries? Do you think we'll be tied to lithium ion technology for decades? I sure don't. No, of course we cannot see the future, but one thing is for certain, it won't be the same as it is now.


      Quote Originally Posted by tbvvw View Post
      The TV comparo is apples to oranges...

      Cars are $36.7K new on average and people keep them 11.5 years. They are not disposable consumer electronics. Just to show you the impact that regs have, Georgia had the exact same per capita new EV sales numbers as California a few years ago until they repealed the tax credit and replaced it with a registration fee. Sales plummeted 80% and have never recovered. Cost and model variety will be the deciding factor in making a dent in new car market share.

      But even with battery technology/improvements that happening in the near future - we're still not turning over 277M registered ICE cars in the US overnight, or in 10 years time to an even 50-50 EV/ICE ratio. The costs and shift in rethinking our 100 year car culture is going to be slower than some might want.

      I bought a $5500 Pioneer 50" plasma 12+ yrs ago and a better performing 65" samsung tv for $700 2 yrs ago. You aren't getting a new Tesla for 15% of 2019 prices in 10 yrs...

      Of course it's the same as disposable electronics. As I mentioned above, can you show me a tech that hasn't gotten cheaper?

      Nobody said we're turning over the whole fleet in 20 years, but as I said earlier, 100 years from now there may still be a smattering of ICE vehicles. Whether they serve a particular purpose or are there because they're antiques I can't say, but the overwhelming majority will be electric of one sort or another. Gassers will probably be as rare as cars on the road today with point trigger ignition. Sure, they exist (and I have one that I drive), but they're the exception that proves the rule.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    6. 12-03-2019 11:57 AM #230
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      That's already been analyzed. The existing power grid can already support overnight slow charging for the next 40 years or so of electric cars.
      Do you have a source?

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    7. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 12:02 PM #231
      Quote Originally Posted by Cabin Pics View Post
      Same.

      When an EV offers the same comfort and range as a gas counterpart for the same price, it'll be worth looking at.

      Right now you're sacrificing range, and how much vehicle you're getting for cost. No thanks.
      If your only comparisons are what gassers do better then yeah, you're going to wait a while. The thing you're missing is that EVs do some things far better than gas cars. What that's worth to a particular individual is up to him/her, but the benefits are there.

      I value the idea of leaving with a "full tank" in my commuter car, warming up or cooling down the interior before I get in it, quiet/linear power and especially not getting gas in February and simply plugging in at home every evening. I think about that last one whenever I get gas and it's 15º F outside.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      12-03-2019 12:09 PM #232
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Of course it's the same as disposable electronics. As I mentioned above, can you show me a tech that hasn't gotten cheaper?
      Take a chart of the top 20 selling vehicles over the last 20 years in the US and tell me how much cheaper they are today. They might be (close to) the same in terms of inflation adjusted NPV, but they aren't cheaper as a whole.
      Cars contain cheaper tech and electronics, but you aren't going to get a TV-like decrease in car/truck costs over the next xx years.

    9. Senior Member Mike!'s Avatar
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      12-03-2019 12:14 PM #233
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      EVs might just become disposable consumer electronics. They are fairly new tech in the modern era and new tech ALWAYS starts out on the high end and then gets cheaper, whether we're talking computers, TVs, MRI machines, etc. We've already doubled EV range in 5 years without doubling price. That's following the same trend as TVs and computers.
      Conversely, my hunch is that EVs (at least in the vein of Tesla, which seems to be the path VW, Ford, and others are taking too) could lead to people keeping their cars longer.

      Why do people get rid of their cars at the 5-6 year mark now? Sometimes they've outgrown it or just want something new, but for a lot of people it's "it's out of warranty now and something big-ticket can go wrong with the engine and transmission." Sprinkled with a bit of "the wear items like brakes and tires have now worn out and I'd rather buy a new car than replace them," but I would hope those people are in the minority. Contrast that with a EV, where the battery and motor warranties are typically 8 years, there's no expensive transmission to replace, and the friction brakes wear a lot less due to the regenerative braking, and the motivation to dump the car is lessened. Combine that with OTA updates like Tesla's been doing to the 3, making it better as they go, and the upgrade cycle doesn't need to be as frequent as we've seen to this point.

      I think the resale market is pointing towards that. Sure, a 2012 Leaf is dirt cheap now (and its non thermally-managed battery is probably down a few bars), but a 2013 Model S is holding up well... around $30k with average miles for a car that stickered somewhere around $70k new. Used 3s aren't out there much at all, and the few that are haven't depreciated much outside of a few high-mileage cases. Okay, that's Tesla and not other brands' EVs, but since Ford and VW seem basically ready to take the Model Y head-on, and EV pickups are coming too (an American vehicle category that's kept long, with good resale), I think we'll see more of that moving forward.

      Back to the consumer electronics comparison, smartphone sales are actually struggling to grow right now, with new phones expensive and people keeping their existing phones longer. 2 year old hardware is perfectly good, still gets all the regular updates, and is even still sold new. The same reason I don't need to upgrade my iPhone 8 to an 11 is also why people with an early Tesla 3 are going to be fine for a while without needing "this year's model." I don't know how that helps TSLA as a company financially, but I think it's a testament to the notion that they expect EV sales to continue to grow outward (market share expanding) rather than needing to repeat-sale to the same customers in order to survive.

    10. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 12:40 PM #234
      Quote Originally Posted by tbvvw View Post
      Take a chart of the top 20 selling vehicles over the last 20 years in the US and tell me how much cheaper they are today. They might be (close to) the same in terms of inflation adjusted NPV, but they aren't cheaper as a whole.
      Cars contain cheaper tech and electronics, but you aren't going to get a TV-like decrease in car/truck costs over the next xx years.
      Yes, cars constantly get cheaper, though you have to account for inflation.

      What's needed to become cheaper in electric cars since forever is batteries. That's what needs to become cheaper. Right now car companies are trying to break even on electric cars and as batteries come down in price per kW the cars are staying roughly the same price as manufacturers try to eke out some profit on them. As they become cheaper still the profits will increase, hopefully soon to the point of the cars themselves becoming cheaper for the consumer.

      At this point in time car companies want to sell enough to make a name for themselves, learn the tech, keep business associations with battery manufacturers, and little else.

      My guess is that Toyota is holding off on their battery EVs because they're profitable enough to buy tech (or a tech company) while they develop the rest of the tech on their government's dime because of the hydrogen subsidies. For all we know they may be working on designs where they can (from a manufacturing standpoint) slide out the fuel cell and slide in a battery pack.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    11. Member masa8888's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 12:44 PM #235
      Quote Originally Posted by tbvvw View Post
      Take a chart of the top 20 selling vehicles over the last 20 years in the US and tell me how much cheaper they are today. They might be (close to) the same in terms of inflation adjusted NPV, but they aren't cheaper as a whole.
      Cars contain cheaper tech and electronics, but you aren't going to get a TV-like decrease in car/truck costs over the next xx years.
      I agree that cars won't get cheaper in the future, but they'll continue to be more capable for the price. I see this progression being quicker for EV's than ICE, though. Using a made up example, let's say a $30k ICE sedan today that comes with X standard features and gets 30mpg. 15 years from now that same model will still be $30k (in today's dollars) but come 25% more standard features and gets 34mpg. Meanwhile, a $40k EV that gets X standard features with a 250 mile range. In 15 years (3 generations after today), that same EV will still be $40k, but get 50% more standard features and have a 400 mile range. In other words, I can imagine a critical mass scenario where EV sales gain serious traction as long as EV's advancements keep outpacing ICE.

    12. 12-03-2019 01:04 PM #236
      Quote Originally Posted by tbvvw View Post
      Which will be dictated or driven by government mandate in order to keep it sustained and on track. Without govt mandates, regs, laws, etc...the transformation to all EV will be very, very slow.

      I'm fine with EVs and agree on the all EV in 100 yr timeframe, but when I talk to some EV folks who think and believe this needs to happen overnight, I sometimes wonder if they even know anything about how many registered cars/trucks/mc just the US has on the road, how long people keep their cars, and how many gas powered new car sales are already in the upcoming 5-10 year pipeline. In other words, if EV sales (not even market share) are at <10% of all cars/trucks in 2030 in the US...it wouldn't surprise me at all. This ain't happening at a fast rate until the infra is built out, prices come down and model variety goes up, and esp not without govt intervention.
      In bold, on point. I agree too that it's surprising how little EV fans seem to be aware of where EVs are really at in the market and how long it would actually take for them to catch on. If they ever really do.

      And ti your point, EVs aren't made today because they make money, they're mandated, regulated and subsidized. Until they become a self sustaining product and that has a demand outside of California in volume they will remain in the small niche they occupy today.

    13. 12-03-2019 01:11 PM #237
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Indiana is one of the last areas where they’ll catch on, but for the first time I’m seeing them on a daily basis.

      As far as the Volt goes, it was a 4-seater sedan/hatch thingy in an era of larger and larger SUVs and cheap gas. Surprise? The concept behind it is quite sound, though. Drive to work on wall socket, take trips on goo from the ground. It works. It works well.

      Yes, prices do need to come down, but they certainly will over the next decade or so. Do they need to be as cheap as a gas car when they only cost about 1/3 as much to operate? I don’t know, but we’ll find out.




      A scam? That’s laughable. My stance is one of logic.

      100 years from now almost every transport will be electric. 10 years from now most new car sales will still be fueled, but electric cars will be getting a good foothold (that fits the definition of “fast” when it comes to switching the national fleet, btw). The only question is timeline.
      Your great state of Indiana isn't alone though, the majority of states are in the same boat with a few thousand in EV sales.. So if you believe your state will be the last, the rest of the country is the same. No volume, no pressure from demand, no money for infrastructure, no investment.

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      12-03-2019 01:23 PM #238
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Of course you do know how the future will pan out. We'll all be driving gasoline powered cars for the next 100 years, because reasons.

      Show me a technology that hasn't gotten cheaper and cheaper over the decades, including automobiles. Our cars are light years ahead of what they were building in the 1950s, yet have far more exotic materials, building techniques that didn't exist at the time, systems installed as standard equipment that people couldn't even fathom back then, performance that would leave them in the dust, passive safety that makes them look like the tin cans they are, active safety systems that would be incomprehensible to their engineers, and computers with more power than the entire world had at the time.

      Do you honestly think that the same won't happen with batteries? Do you think we'll be tied to lithium ion technology for decades? I sure don't. No, of course we cannot see the future, but one thing is for certain, it won't be the same as it is now.
      I've never proclaimed to know the future. That's your bag. Will there be a bigger mix of EVs in the future? You could cobble together evidence and legitimate arguments that go either way. So claiming things WILL go one way or another definitively is ridiculous.

      And your whole "well XYZ happened so EVs will happen too" is a classic false cause fallacy. ICEV cars are cheaper and better than they've ever been. OK. Completely unrelated tech has got cheaper and better too. Great stuff. What does any of that have to do with EVs? TVs being cheaper today than before has absolutely no bearing on whether or not EVs will catch on. And even if EVs get cheaper, there's no guarantee that they'll get cheap enough, or that one of the various other hurdles to market adaptation will go away. Short of govts basically forcing people into EVs by gunpoint there are absolutely no guarantees, and it's idiotic to enact policy that treats EV viability as a foregone conclusion. If that makes me a caveman or luddite w/e, I've been called much worse.

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      12-03-2019 01:29 PM #239
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      And ti your point, EVs aren't made today because they make money, they're mandated, regulated and subsidized. Until they become a self sustaining product and that has a demand outside of California in volume they will remain in the small niche they occupy today.
      I can't think of any big tech adaptation in the US that was forced by the govt. I look at this list and see some tech that got govt help to develop, but not for people to actually use- at least to the broad and acute level that EVs are. This was all pure market demand. People got hold of the products and saw value in them. End of story.


    16. Member Chris_V's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 01:58 PM #240
      Fine, lets stop EV subsidies, and tax breaks. So long as we ALSO end all oil subsidies, tax breaks and wars for oil that keep it's price artificially low and also line the pockets of oil company execs, and kill people just so we can "get the oil."

      Trump on the Kurds: "We have taken the oil. I've taken the oil. We should have done it in other locations, frankly, where we were. I can name four of them right now, but we've taken the oil ... our great soldiers are right around the oil where we've got the oil."

      https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1201905571324149760
      Last edited by Chris_V; 12-03-2019 at 03:09 PM. Reason: twitter being a butt about linking
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    17. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 02:42 PM #241
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      Your great state of Indiana isn't alone though, the majority of states are in the same boat with a few thousand in EV sales.. So if you believe your state will be the last, the rest of the country is the same. No volume, no pressure from demand, no money for infrastructure, no investment.
      And yet there are more than there used to be here and elsewhere. You think that the only reason they're selling is because they're subsidized, but they're subsidized only to a point. People are still buying/leasing them because they want them, subsidies or not. Those subsidies will go away over time. See also subsidies for oil.


      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I've never proclaimed to know the future. That's your bag. Will there be a bigger mix of EVs in the future? You could cobble together evidence and legitimate arguments that go either way. So claiming things WILL go one way or another definitively is ridiculous.

      And your whole "well XYZ happened so EVs will happen too" is a classic false cause fallacy. ICEV cars are cheaper and better than they've ever been. OK. Completely unrelated tech has got cheaper and better too. Great stuff. What does any of that have to do with EVs? TVs being cheaper today than before has absolutely no bearing on whether or not EVs will catch on. And even if EVs get cheaper, there's no guarantee that they'll get cheap enough, or that one of the various other hurdles to market adaptation will go away. Short of govts basically forcing people into EVs by gunpoint there are absolutely no guarantees, and it's idiotic to enact policy that treats EV viability as a foregone conclusion. If that makes me a caveman or luddite w/e, I've been called much worse.
      You have indeed claimed to know the future just by saying that they won't sell/take over the fleet/whatever. What I'm saying is that nothing is stagnant. Nothing. Certainly not tech. And EVs are viable for a huge swath of the population now. What they aren't is cheap, but that is constantly changing too.

      The fact that you don't understand how mass manufacturing, research into new processes and materials, scale and competition doesn't make things cheaper is on you.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      12-03-2019 03:12 PM #242
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      Fine, lets stop EV subsidies, and tax breaks. So long as we ALSO end all oil subsidies, tax breaks and wars for oil that keep it's price artificially low and also line the pockets of oil company execs, and kill people just so we can "get the oil."

      Trump on the Kurds: "We have taken the oil. I've taken the oil. We should have done it in other locations, frankly, where we were. I can name four of them right now, but we've taken the oil ... our great soldiers are right around the oil where we've got the oil."

      https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1201905571324149760
      I'd have no problem with that. Now what?

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      12-03-2019 03:13 PM #243
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      You have indeed claimed to know the future just by saying that they won't sell/take over the fleet/whatever. What I'm saying is that nothing is stagnant. Nothing. Certainly not tech. And EVs are viable for a huge swath of the population now. What they aren't is cheap, but that is constantly changing too.

      The fact that you don't understand how mass manufacturing, research into new processes and materials, scale and competition doesn't make things cheaper is on you.
      Of course of course. Anyone who doesn't believe in the EV future with all their heart just isn't smart enough to understand. Ironclad logic.

    20. 12-03-2019 03:30 PM #244
      Obviously it's impossible to foresee the future and we could be hit with a massive asteroid causing our world to regress.

      But there is a certain inevitability to EV's, whether that ends up being hydrogen fuel cells powering an electric motor, hybrid EV, or pure EV. With almost every major manufacturer finally devoting development dollars to solving the shortcomings of EV's and multiple governments going all in on EV, I don't see any other obvious path forward for automobiles.

      To not recognize the obvious means you just enjoy pedantic arguments or you're trolling. Seems I was wrong and TCL comments fall mostly into the former, rather than the latter.

      Either way, it's pointless to argue.

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    21. Member BlackMiata's Avatar
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      12-03-2019 03:53 PM #245
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Of course of course. Anyone who doesn't believe in the EV future with all their heart just isn't smart enough to understand. Ironclad logic.
      EVs in an urban environment make sense, EVs in the rural environment it's questionable.

      In the urban environment you typically have public transportation to fall back on, in the country typically not an option. During a natural disaster damaged electrical infrastructure is going to be fixed in the urban areas first, due to people density, in the rural areas, repairs are going to take much longer. If your EV is low on charge you are trapped at home. Look at the power outages in California, they shut of power for days to avoid wildfires, which means no charging of your EV.

      In the rural environment I can have extra gas stored in case of emergencies, we don't have a way to store electricity at home yet. yes we can install a generator, and have extra gas to run it, but at what cost of efficiency? Likely can go further with the gas in a ICE vehicle, than use it to charge the EV.

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      12-03-2019 04:35 PM #246
      Quote Originally Posted by Silver_arrow12! View Post
      Obviously it's impossible to foresee the future and we could be hit with a massive asteroid causing our world to regress.

      But there is a certain inevitability to EV's, whether that ends up being hydrogen fuel cells powering an electric motor, hybrid EV, or pure EV. With almost every major manufacturer finally devoting development dollars to solving the shortcomings of EV's and multiple governments going all in on EV, I don't see any other obvious path forward for automobiles.

      To not recognize the obvious means you just enjoy pedantic arguments or you're trolling. Seems I was wrong and TCL comments fall mostly into the former, rather than the latter.

      Either way, it's pointless to argue.

      Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
      So just so I'm clear, EVs are inevitable, everything manufacturers pour money into winds up being successful, and anyone who disagrees is being pedantic or trolling? That's interesting.

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      12-03-2019 04:38 PM #247
      Quote Originally Posted by BlackMiata View Post
      EVs in an urban environment make sense, EVs in the rural environment it's questionable.

      In the urban environment you typically have public transportation to fall back on, in the country typically not an option. During a natural disaster damaged electrical infrastructure is going to be fixed in the urban areas first, due to people density, in the rural areas, repairs are going to take much longer. If your EV is low on charge you are trapped at home. Look at the power outages in California, they shut of power for days to avoid wildfires, which means no charging of your EV.

      In the rural environment I can have extra gas stored in case of emergencies, we don't have a way to store electricity at home yet. yes we can install a generator, and have extra gas to run it, but at what cost of efficiency? Likely can go further with the gas in a ICE vehicle, than use it to charge the EV.
      It is a catch 22. I do think for urban areas EVs make sense... it's much easier to add chargers to a dense city power grid than to build out hundreds of miles of lines to cover sparsely populated areas. Plus I'd wager urban folks don't drive as far as rural folk, which makes charging less critical there on a daily basis.

    24. 12-03-2019 05:00 PM #248
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      So just so I'm clear, EVs are inevitable, and anyone who disagrees is being pedantic or trolling? That's interesting.
      Fixed it for you. Nowhere did I claim everything manufacturers spend money on becomes a success.

      EV's are already on the road by the millions and being produced by almost every major manufacturer and being suported by multiple governments, so they're already a success.

      What's inevitable is that the ranges will increase, charge times decrease, and infrastructure will be built.

      Will they eventually become a total market solution for every application? I think there's valid concern that we're nowhere near that and might never get their. Are EV passenger cars becoming the standard in the market? Yes. It's inevitably.



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      12-03-2019 05:13 PM #249
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I can't think of any big tech adaptation in the US that was forced by the govt.
      Tons and tons of them, but here's one I'm sure everybody has heard of: telephones. Anybody with a landline is still paying taxes to force companies to deliver POTS to rural areas.

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      12-03-2019 05:24 PM #250
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Of course of course. Anyone who doesn't believe in the EV future with all their heart just isn't smart enough to understand. Ironclad logic.
      So 100 years from now everyone is going to be driving a piston engine car that runs on goop from the other side of the world? Is that what you're saying?
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
      Proletariat, Bourgeoise - Everybody smellin' my potpourri...

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