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    1. Senior Member Mike!'s Avatar
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      12-02-2019 09:21 AM #151
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      How about people who street park or live in multi family buildings? Sure EV infrastructure is more decentralized but it's hardly as accessible for everyone as a gas station.
      You need zero of them for EVs to get even 60% market share. They don’t need to work for everyone yet I’m order to work for most people.

      L1 and even L2 street parking solutions do exist too, there just hasn’t been much need to implement them yet. L1 overnight would be all that’s really needed too if you’re talking strictly urban use.

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      12-02-2019 09:33 AM #152
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      You need zero of them for EVs to get even 60% market share. They don’t need to work for everyone yet I’m order to work for most people.
      I'm guessing that assumes every single car in a household with private parking would go EV, which just isn't realistic. Yes the average number of cars per household is around 2 but roommates don't share cars and even in families at least some people will still want 1 ICEV in the fleet.

    4. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 09:43 AM #153
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I'm guessing that assumes every single car in a household with private parking would go EV, which just isn't realistic. Yes the average number of cars per household is around 2 but roommates don't share cars and even in families at least some people will still want 1 ICEV in the fleet.
      That is not at all what he is saying. He's simply pointing out that right now EVs make up only a few percent of new vehicle sales, and thus something less than 1% of total registered vehicles since it takes 20+ years of new vehicle sales to turnover the majority of registered vehicles. The point is simply that we could sell 10x or maybe even 50x as many EVs before even having to care very much about anything other than home charging.

      It will take decades for EVs to increase to 25-50% of total registered vehicles and that's plenty of time for the world to change around us anyway. There's still no guarantee that people who don't live places with easy home charging solutions will even own cars at all 40 years from now. 4 decades might be plenty far enough in the future for various car sharing and self driving technologies and trends to have simply changed the way transportation even works so that this year's rules don't even apply to the year 2060.

    5. 12-02-2019 10:13 AM #154
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      And to be clear, I think EVs have a place in the automotive landscape and fight against climate change, and I myself could do one if the right one came along. I'm a prime candidate (private parking, very regular driving pattern, could probably talk my old bosses into putting some chargers up at work)

      But that's a totally different thing from banning the sale of ICEVs (including hybrids???) whether or not the infrastructure, technology and most importantly market are ready. EVihadists make more cautious folks sound like bad guys for even daring to question the viability of ending ICEV sales in 10 years. It's ridiculous.
      Did someone in here say they support banning ICEV's in 10 years?

      Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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      12-02-2019 10:17 AM #155
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      That is not at all what he is saying. He's simply pointing out that right now EVs make up only a few percent of new vehicle sales, and thus something less than 1% of total registered vehicles since it takes 20+ years of new vehicle sales to turnover the majority of registered vehicles. The point is simply that we could sell 10x or maybe even 50x as many EVs before even having to care very much about anything other than home charging.

      It will take decades for EVs to increase to 25-50% of total registered vehicles and that's plenty of time for the world to change around us anyway. There's still no guarantee that people who don't live places with easy home charging solutions will even own cars at all 40 years from now. 4 decades might be plenty far enough in the future for various car sharing and self driving technologies and trends to have simply changed the way transportation even works so that this year's rules don't even apply to the year 2060.
      You and him seem to be talking about different things. I thought market share = a percent of the number of cars sold over a given period. I suppose a surge of early adapters could drive EV market share higher but that would assume people who can live with EVs buy new cars more than people who can't, which we just don't have enough info to point to one way or the other.

      I do agree though that AVs are a much more potentially disruptive tech than EVs. Sure there is some skepticism around it due to where the tech is today, but if it ever becomes commercially & practically feasible it will upend transportation completely IMO. There's a lot of talk about EVs but I honestly think they won't matter anywhere near as much if AVs become a thing for reasons I've probably laid out ad nauseum.
      Last edited by CTK; 12-02-2019 at 10:20 AM.

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      12-02-2019 10:18 AM #156
      Quote Originally Posted by Silver_arrow12! View Post
      Did someone in here say they support banning ICEV's in 10 years?

      Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
      Various countries have new ICEV sales bans for 2030 and Galrot has been arguing that those bans make sense.

    8. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 10:22 AM #157
      Quote Originally Posted by Dubveiser View Post
      Not so fast.

      Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

      As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

      With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.
      But that $1.80 happens in 5 minutes and during many times there is another car waiting to provide another $1.80 in the next 5 minutes on each pump. Plus if the driver or passengers go inside the convenience store, there is a lot more profit to be made off that 5 minute stop by each motorist.

      There is also likely a demand charge that the EV infrastructure is paying on top of the per kWh rates. That has to be factored into the gross profit of the EV infrastructure owner. And as noted in my previous post in almost every case, the EV infrastructure owner doesn't typically own the store or restaurant where the EV infrastructure is placed and thus doesn't make the profit from those sales like a gas station/convenience store typically does.

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      12-02-2019 10:34 AM #158
      There are also going to be equipment costs incurred by the utilities. If people are charging at peak demand times, they will have to beef up generation and transmission. Would take a deep and localized analysis to really know if that would make sense for utilities but the notion that there's available capacity on a weekday afternoon is flat out wrong. Utilities pay big customers NOT to use electricity during those times.

    10. 12-02-2019 11:03 AM #159
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      There are also going to be equipment costs incurred by the utilities. If people are charging at peak demand times, they will have to beef up generation and transmission. Would take a deep and localized analysis to really know if that would make sense for utilities but the notion that there's available capacity on a weekday afternoon is flat out wrong. Utilities pay big customers NOT to use electricity during those times.
      I think off peak is just as critical. The majority of EV's are slow charged at night. While 1000 cars fast charging at a time at stations around the city during peak times is a concern, imagine a large city with over a million plus cars slow charging every night.

      We're going to have to rethink our grid.




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    11. Senior Member Sporin's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 11:22 AM #160
      I think EVs are great. I’d love to own one someday.

      My area is rural but between an Ivy League college and a major Medical Center it’s affluent and leans very “green.” Every other car that isn’t a Subaru is a Hybrid. EVs are starting to make a little headway here but the charging infrastructure is nearly non-existent. We are lucky to have a Supercharger in West Lebanon, which Tesla bills as a mid-point change for the Boston-to-Montreal route.

      Public charge points outside of the Supercharger are very rare. There are a very few here and there around each town but nothing major (the ones at the park and ride are just standard 110 outlets) and basically none in even the largest shopping center parking lots.

      Home charging is the biggie here and that is very limiting as not everyone owns their own home. I just don’t see that changing anytime soon. Maybe a brand new apartment complex puts in a few spots but it’s not like we suddenly have spots to charge up any real percentage of cars in public.

      For me, that’s a very limiting factor. I simply wouldn’t own an EV unless I had a home charging port and I guarantee you I’m not the only one who thinks that way. Now *I* can have that, which is why it is an option for me if some other factors evolve in my direction. But I know plenty of people in apartments and condos that cannot have an EV and charge it at home.

      I honestly don’t ever expect EV infrastructure to mimic petrol/diesel infrastructure, not in my lifetime at least. And I feel the same way about anything even approaching an ICE ban in the US in my lifetime. Maybe 50 or 60 years from now if things get all Max Max, but the scientists really don’t talk much about “peak oil” anymore. We put billions into drilling and research and trillions into the military to secure it all. A few smaller countries and major metros might try it but large scale ICE car bans are a greenie pipe dream (and I’m very much a greenie).
      Last edited by Sporin; 12-02-2019 at 12:26 PM.

    12. Member Unilateral Phase Detractor's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 12:02 PM #161
      Quote Originally Posted by Dubveiser View Post
      Not so fast.

      Gross profit margins on a gallon of gasoline is 0.15$. On a 12 gallon tank that is 1.80$.

      As a comparison, 125kw charging typically goes for 0.60-0.70$ per minute and charges at roughly 2kw per minute at peak rates.

      With a national average of 0.13$/kwh, that means a car plugged into a 0.60$/minute quick charge station for just 5 minutes will generate the same gross profit as a gas station selling 12 gallon of gas.
      Not sure if this was addressed, but I have worked closely with the electric industry and it's a bit more complicated than that. A majority of North American is covered by a RTO/ISO which is basically a grid operator that runs a kind of market for energy in real time. The price you see on your home electric bill is fixed and therefore often far off what the going rate is, particularly on hot summer days. In Texas this summer, prices got up to $9000/MWh for a time, which equates to $9/kWh. That's a bit of an anomaly, but it's still common to see prices above $300/MWh ($0.30/kWh) on an average hot day in many areas. This leaves little room for profit at a $0.40-0.50 DCFC rate. Though I'm optimistic about EVs generally, fast charging is currently not an ideal situation because most of their use is during daytime hours, and presumably it will increase in summer months as more people take road trips and stop around lunchtime to fill up.

      This is where EVs nicely dovetail with adoption of solar. In areas like California that have high solar deployment, a midday spike from DCFC is strongly mitigated from the added "free" sun generation. Solar actually gets curtailed from time to time because it will produce more electricity than needed in the early afternoon, and farm owners don't get paid as much or at all from power they aren't permitted to sell. But cars could soak up that supply, and everyone would benefit.

      TL;DR EVs face a number of engineering and economic challenges on the power side, but solutions are in the works.

    13. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 12:26 PM #162
      Quote Originally Posted by Silver_arrow12! View Post
      I think off peak is just as critical. The majority of EV's are slow charged at night. While 1000 cars fast charging at a time at stations around the city during peak times is a concern, imagine a large city with over a million plus cars slow charging every night.

      We're going to have to rethink our grid.
      That's already been analyzed. The existing power grid can already support overnight slow charging for the next 40 years or so of electric cars.

    14. 12-02-2019 12:37 PM #163
      Quote Originally Posted by Sporin View Post
      Talking about EVs here is a bit like talking about Israel. Say anything negative and you’re an anti-Semite. A bit hyperbolic but you get my point.

      I think EV’s are great. I’d love to own one someday.

      My area is rural but between an Ivy League college and a major Medical Center it’s affluent and leans very “green.” Every other car that isn’t a Subaru is a Hybrid. EVs are starting to make a little headway here but the charging infrastructure is nearly non-existent. We are lucky to have a Supercharger in West Lebanon, which Tesla bills as a mid-point change for the Boston-to-Montreal route.

      Public charge points outside of the Supercharger are very rare. There are a very few here and there around each town but nothing major (the ones at the park and ride are just standard 110 outlets) and basically none in even the largest shopping center parking lots.

      Home charging is the biggie here and that is very limiting as not everyone owns their own home. I just don’t see that changing anytime soon. Maybe a brand apartment complex puts in a few spots but it’s not like we suddenly have spots to charge up any real percentage of cars in public.

      For me, that’s a very limiting factor. I simply wouldn’t own an EV unless I had a home charging port and I guarantee you I’m not the only one who thinks that way. Now *I* can have that, which is why it is an option for me if some other factors evolve in my direction. But I know plenty of people in apartments and condos that cannot have an EV and charge it at home.

      I honestly don’t ever expect EV infrastructure to mimic petrol/diesel infrastructure, not in my lifetime at least. And I feel the same way about anything even approaching an ICE ban in the US in my lifetime. Maybe 50 or 60 years from now if things get all Max Max, but the scientists really don’t talk much about “peak oil” anymore. We put billions into drilling and research and trillions into the military to secure it all. A few smaller countries and major metros might try it but large scale ICE car bans are a greenie pipe dream (and I’m very much a greenie).
      Exactly, if you point out the negatives and obstacles that EVs have you're supposedly a troll, lol.

      We do have a very small group here that goes bonkers if anything negative about EVs is posted, lol, it's just cars. We even had one that wished death to people who disagreed with him. I don't lump all EV buyers in that lot, not at all.

      As a car person, if it has wheels, a steering wher and a seat I'll give it a go for kicks. For my needs and wants and for the majority of people in the US they don't make sense yet.

      Former Cadillac president Johan de Nyssche, Toyota senior engineer Jackie Birdsall and Hyundai's vice president and head of fuel cell group, Sae Hoon Kim must be trolls too because they point out the same issues riding against EVs that we do.

      Hydrogen gaining mass acceptance and having infrastructure to support is just as crazy as EVs case, but those three above have skin in the game, have places of position in large automotive companies and they think hydrogen fuel cells are the right path.

      I don't think all EV fans are zealots and I've read a few threads from them that were interesting. Enjoying what you bought is awesome. But just like being an enthusiast for the performance cars we love, I understand that the majority of people don't share our passion and it doesn't piss me off if someone brings that up. Because it's the truth.

    15. Senior Member chucchinchilla's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 01:19 PM #164
      This right here...

      Ford is abandoning sedans and putting those resources towards electric vehicles. Volkswagen decided to go all in to electric and abandon internal combustion and other powertrains. Other companies are doing the same. I happen to be with Toyota, so I believe it’s the right choice to invest in all powertrains.
      ...translates to the Sales and Marketing chief not necessarily believing what he's saying, he's just peddling the company strategy because that's who he works for.
      Quote Originally Posted by [email protected] View Post
      This forum is more and more of an embarrassment every day...

    16. Member Chris_V's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 01:42 PM #165
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      Exactly, if you point out the negatives and obstacles that EVs have you're supposedly a troll, lol.

      No, you're a troll when you ONLY point out negatives, and make up many of them.

      I dare you to live with an EV for a month and make the same statements you make now.
      "Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection"

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      12-02-2019 03:06 PM #166
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      No, you're a troll when you ONLY point out negatives, and make up many of them.

      I dare you to live with an EV for a month and make the same statements you make now.
      He hasn't only pointed out the negatives though. You just see red whenever someone mentions anything negative about them. The fact that you admit that EV ownership is your excuse to throw objectivity out the window proves his point

    18. 12-02-2019 03:41 PM #167
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      No, you're a troll when you ONLY point out negatives, and make up many of them.

      I dare you to live with an EV for a month and make the same statements you make now.
      How about you not wishing people would die just because they disagree with you.

      There are EV fans that have started threads about since of the problems they faced with EVs. And thankfully most are good peeps and we even have fun picking with Uber Wagon, LOL

      We talk car stuff here and we can indeed disagree, but you go way too far dude. I could care less what you post about anything.

    19. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 05:30 PM #168
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      How am I being ridiculous? You said EV viability is coming fast. Ok, how fast?
      Because "fast" isn't an exact term, it's descriptive. They certainly are coming fast. Everyone is saying "but, but, but they're only 2% of the market!" Well just a few years ago they were less than 1% of the market. The number has increased drastically in just a few years. Double it again and that's 4%. Another doubling is 8%, then 16% etc.

      Don't think they're coming fast? It doesn't matter. They'll come anyway.
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    20. 12-02-2019 05:45 PM #169
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Because "fast" isn't an exact term, it's descriptive. They certainly are coming fast. Everyone is saying "but, but, but they're only 2% of the market!" Well just a few years ago they were less than 1% of the market. The number has increased drastically in just a few years. Double it again and that's 4%. Another doubling is 8%, then 16% etc.

      Don't think they're coming fast? It doesn't matter. They'll come anyway.
      It's an honest question and it could very well remain at two or three percent for decades.

      California is almost half of the EV market, Tesla is the biggest seller in a small segment , neither is an example of our market as a whole. Take those two out and you see what the rest of us see, a market specific niche product that will struggle to branch out from there.

      As others have already stated, there are other paths and hybrids aren't a bad choice to EVs. And remember, Toyota is betting that hydrogen fuel cells will do better than EVs, so there's different opinions from players who are actually in the game.

      And it's not about whether any of us like EVs or not, that's irrelevant, it's about where EVs honestly are market wise and what real hurdles they face today and for the foreseeable future.

    21. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 05:56 PM #170
      As for the adoption rate, individual people can be biased. This is where governmental and international agencies can be a good resource.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/elec...-2030-iea.html

      Electric vehicles will grow from 3 million to 125 million by 2030, International Energy Agency forecasts.

      IEA’s outlook still leaves plenty of room for fossil fuel-powered vehicles. Forecasts put the world’s total car count at roughly 2 billion somewhere in the 2035 to 2040 window.
      So 125 of 2000 = 6% of all vehicles projected to be electric by 2030. Echoing the statement above, to plenty of people only 6% sounds weak and pathetic, but to frame it as going from 3m to 125m in 13 years (article is from 2018 based on calendar year 2017 data) is a massive 4166% increase. So both perspectives can be right: that 6% is a small number and that 4166% is a huge number.

      Also echoing what others have said, EVs are coming whether haters and trolls want them or not. No amount of EV hatred can stop people from buying them because the sales of EVs is driven by the people who want them, not the people who hate them. This isn't like political elections where you can stop somebody from getting into office by hating them and thus voting for their opponent. If a troll buys 100 gasoline cars out of pure hatred for EVs, that still doesn't stop anybody else from buying a single EV themselves.

    22. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 05:57 PM #171
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      It's an honest question and it could very well remain at two or three percent for decades.

      California is almost half of the EV market, Tesla is the biggest seller in a small segment , neither is an example of our market as a whole. Take those two out and you see what the rest of us see, a market specific niche product that will struggle to branch out from there.

      As others have already stated, there are other paths and hybrids aren't a bad choice to EVs. And remember, Toyota is betting that hydrogen fuel cells will do better than EVs, so there's different opinions from players who are actually in the game.

      And it's not about whether any of us like EVs or not, that's irrelevant, it's about where EVs honestly are market wise and what real hurdles they face today and for the foreseeable future.

      But the word is getting out. EVs are über reliable, cheap to run, quiet, inexpensive to operate, strong and they don't cost much to charge. They're cheap except for the price of admission. As they come down in price they will be adopted by more and more people, who will continue to tell people and others will ride in them and even drive them. They have too many benefits even if they don't fit everyone's needs.

      For me personally the Volt would be almost perfect and that kind of drivetrain is ideal for a great many people, even if they don't yet see it.


      Oh, and I see more EVs here all the time, and I'm in southern freakin' Indiana.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    23. 12-02-2019 06:23 PM #172
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      But the word is getting out. EVs are über reliable, cheap to run, quiet, inexpensive to operate, strong and they don't cost much to charge. They're cheap except for the price of admission. As they come down in price they will be adopted by more and more people, who will continue to tell people and others will ride in them and even drive them. They have too many benefits even if they don't fit everyone's needs.

      For me personally the Volt would be almost perfect and that kind of drivetrain is ideal for a great many people, even if they don't yet see it.


      Oh, and I see more EVs here all the time, and I'm in southern freakin' Indiana.
      We can bridge. As you state yourself, the price of admission to EVs is high, it's a barrier. When that barrier falls we have no idea but can say with certainty is that it ain't soon.

      Nobody wanted a Chevy Cruz, an EV version even less so. That in no way is a knock on you, glad you likev the Volt, it's just that not enough people agree with that choice.

      And Indiana. Appreciate the fact that Indiana only sold 2,036 EVs for the whole of 2018. In my state, NC they only sold 4,712 and I rarely see an EV. You have to honestly admit those numbers represent the definition of not only a niche type of vehicle, but a very, very small one.

      So you see when we read about products like the Volt (that they discontinued) and how little EVs sell outside of California, how high the prices are and the absence of real infrastructure, there's more than enough physical data for a reasonable person to believe no, EVs aren't going to make big strides at all for decades.

      And too, appreciate that they may never take hold at all. There are companies out there hedging their bets and exploring other options.

    24. Member BlakeV's Avatar
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      12-02-2019 06:30 PM #173
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      As for the adoption rate, individual people can be biased. This is where governmental and international agencies can be a good resource.
      This kind of forecast is always very off. "Electric vehicles will grow from 3 million to 125 million by 2030" or in 10 years is a big pipe dream. Asia doesn't buy them, Europe very little and America's sales are going down. Now remove the scandalous grants and see them crash quicker than you can pronounce E-V.

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      12-02-2019 07:31 PM #174
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Because "fast" isn't an exact term, it's descriptive. They certainly are coming fast. Everyone is saying "but, but, but they're only 2% of the market!" Well just a few years ago they were less than 1% of the market. The number has increased drastically in just a few years. Double it again and that's 4%. Another doubling is 8%, then 16% etc.

      Don't think they're coming fast? It doesn't matter. They'll come anyway.
      Yes I know how exponential growth works. That doesn't mean EVs are guaranteed to continue growing at that speed, or frankly at all.

      Your stance on EVs is damn near a scam. It's completely baseless but logically safe. If EVs don't grow you can just claim "just a small headwind- you'll see!" If they do you get to say "ha ha, told you so!" despite offering nothing of substance to validate said prediction. Then to cap it all off you resort to insults and proclaim EVs are good for us even if we "don't know it yet" like some kind of religious nutjob. It's OK to be a fan or believe in something without going completely crazy or becoming some kind of fanatic.

    26. 12-02-2019 07:38 PM #175
      Quote Originally Posted by got-rice View Post
      https://electrek.co/2019/11/25/inter...emand-for-evs/

      No market huh? What is the company doing overseas in China selling a Lexus UX Electric?

      This guy played minor league ball before joining Toyota
      He is kind of right. Like I said before we have power outages in the summer from air conditioners, we do not have the infrastructure for a massive amount of people going electric. Also, we drive far distances for road trips, at least I do. I would love to get the new VW van/bus if it was a hybrid but the all electric is not going to cut it. I think VW's new electrics will sell good at first because they are new and fresh but they are making a mistake to focus on full electric in North America at this time.

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