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    1. Member
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      09-14-2019 11:24 PM #26
      Quote Originally Posted by HI SPEED View Post
      I was coming in here to post the same thing with the same title.

      Both trucks are getting filled up today.
      **** like this has more to do with prices spiking than the actual event

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    3. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 12:05 AM #27
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      The Yemen/Saudi thing runs very deep; it's a proxy war between KSA/Iran and Persians/Arabs in general that goes back thousands of years.
      Yeah, honestly the best thing the western nations of the world can do is stay out of it and let them blow each other up without any help from us. Well, I mean besides the fact the US has armed the Saudis to the teeth with most of our latest weapons tech. As far as direct action though - no, our best play is to look the other way and basically pretend we don't know anything is going on over there. There will never be peace in the middle east so the sooner we as a species can wean ourselves off oil, the better.

    4. Member HI SPEED's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 12:50 AM #28
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      **** like this has more to do with prices spiking than the actual event
      Nah most of the world doesn't even follow the news and may be in for a rude awakening if the market overreacts. I only fill up once a month so hopefully it has blown over by then.

      Then again sure how long it takes to rebuild some of the biggest refineries in the world after they were hit with missiles.

      Also there is no way the Saudis take this lying down, they have many billions of state of the art weapons that they are going to rain down on Yemen now. This is just the beginning.

    5. You can't look at my avatar for just a second, can you? Just Another Sweater's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 01:50 AM #29
      Quote Originally Posted by HI SPEED View Post
      Nah most of the world doesn't even follow the news and may be in for a rude awakening if the market overreacts. I only fill up once a month so hopefully it has blown over by then.

      Then again sure how long it takes to rebuild some of the biggest refineries in the world after they were hit with missiles.

      Also there is no way the Saudis take this lying down, they have many billions of state of the art weapons that they are going to rain down on Yemen now. This is just the beginning.
      This. I just hope the US does not get involved.

    6. Senior Member LT1M21Stingray's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 02:37 AM #30
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      The attack will cause an initial disruption but again, keep it in perspective, the amount in reserves and the nations still pumping can and will make up for the loss.

      In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), Prince Abdulaziz said the attacks "resulted in a temporary suspension of production at Abqaiq and Khurais plants".

      The Khurais oilfield produces about 1% of the world's oil, and Abqaiq is the company's largest facility - with the capacity to process 7% of the global supply.

      He said that part of the reduction would be compensated for by drawing on Aramco's oil stocks.
      The situation was under control at both facilities, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said, adding that no casualties had been reported in the attacks."



      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49703143
      I have spent some time in Abqaiq in the past. That is all.
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      09-15-2019 09:12 AM #31
      Oil futures are actually down


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    8. 09-15-2019 09:17 AM #32
      Quote Originally Posted by Just Another Sweater View Post
      This. I just hope the US does not get involved.
      It already is, in some form or other be that CIA, Homeland or some other agency.
      Including some I'm sure in Syria, Iran and Iraq, be that official employées, informants, or other role. With a combined budget of 100s of billions USD and 100s of thousands of employées combined there is no way that isn't the case. That will surely be increasing now.
      Now an official miltary presence is an entirely level of commitment. Hopefully some lessons were learned from the political aftermath of the Iran/Iraq conflict about what can be achieved.

      Sent from using Tapatalk

    9. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 09:37 AM #33
      Quote Originally Posted by cpermd View Post
      Oil futures are actually down


      Nothingburger
      Lol. Are you looking at the results of Friday after hours trades? Wait until Monday.

      The effect of this isn’t going to be the attack itself, but the fact that this will make sure the US keeps a hard line on Iran, which will continue to surpress Iranian production. Continued Houthi attacks could put a damper on Saudi production though.

      But all of this is just a small part of the story. The bigger part is the declining shale drilling activity. $55 oil was fueled by cheap Wall Street money and over drilling in the shale patch. That’s coming to an end. Turns out most companies aren’t profitable at $55 despite their boasts of sub $30 break evens.
      Last edited by Nealric; 09-15-2019 at 09:42 AM.

    10. 09-15-2019 10:22 AM #34
      Can we talk about how Yemen pulled off this attack? Any links with info yet?

      I mean this has got to be one of the first DRONE ATTACKS by a third party player (not state to state) on this kind of scale.

      How big were the drones? What kind of explosive were they carrying and how much? Where exactly were they launched from?

      Pretty scary that if you were a bad actor with a drone and some explosives you could put it nearly anywhere.


    11. 09-15-2019 10:59 AM #35
      Here in Canada I believe anything over 25 kg needs commercial licensing. It's based on weights in most countries. With composites that can be a big device.




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    12. 09-15-2019 11:20 AM #36
      There always was and still is a glut of oil. They argue about slowing production to raise prices as more suppliers come online like Russia and Iran. And in the US we actually became the top oil producer briefly. With current production levels and untapped areas that abound, oil is and will be big business will more suppliers than the market to handle. The Saudi hit was huge to them, half their production, but they account for 10% of global supply, they lost half of that, so globally we've lost 5% capacity. With other nation chomping at the bit to pump, that 5% will be met.

      "The United States this year became the largest crude oil producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to preliminary estimates from the Energy Information Administration.

      What’s more, the authority said production growth will continue: it has estimated the average for full-2018 will be 10.7 million. That’s a substantial increase on last year’s average of 9.4 million bpd, and production will continue to grow in 2019 as well to 11.5 million bpd.
      Conditions are ripe for a further increase in U.S. production. With sanctions against Iran due to enter into effect in November, oil prices will jump higher even though the market has had several months to adjust to the new situation with lower supply. The United States has ensured a cushion of 11 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and OPEC and Russia have promised they would pump more if it is needed."

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Globally.html

    13. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 11:28 AM #37
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      There always was and still is a glut of oil. They argue about slowing production to raise prices as more suppliers come online like Russia and Iran. And in the US we actually became the top oil producer briefly. With current production levels and untapped areas that abound, oil is and will be big business will more suppliers than the market to handle. The Saudi hit was huge to them, half their production, but they account for 10% of global supply, they lost half of that, so globally we've lost 5% capacity. With other nation chomping at the bit to pump, that 5% will be met.

      "The United States this year became the largest crude oil producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to preliminary estimates from the Energy Information Administration.

      What’s more, the authority said production growth will continue: it has estimated the average for full-2018 will be 10.7 million. That’s a substantial increase on last year’s average of 9.4 million bpd, and production will continue to grow in 2019 as well to 11.5 million bpd.
      Conditions are ripe for a further increase in U.S. production. With sanctions against Iran due to enter into effect in November, oil prices will jump higher even though the market has had several months to adjust to the new situation with lower supply. The United States has ensured a cushion of 11 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and OPEC and Russia have promised they would pump more if it is needed."

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Globally.html
      This is old analysis. US production has flatlined since December ‘18. There has been very little non-U.S. growth as West Africa declines and Venezuela basically shut down with no prospect of improvement. Shale will increase a decent bit, but only at substantially higher prices.

      US storage is down below the 5 year moving average. It has plummeted through the summer.

    14. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 11:30 AM #38
      Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
      Can we talk about how Yemen pulled off this attack? Any links with info yet?

      I mean this has got to be one of the first DRONE ATTACKS by a third party player (not state to state) on this kind of scale.

      How big were the drones? What kind of explosive were they carrying and how much? Where exactly were they launched from?

      Pretty scary that if you were a bad actor with a drone and some explosives you could put it nearly anywhere.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni...%80%93present)

      Short version - there is no such unified nation as "Yemen", it's a relatively lawless region that is in a state of civil war with perhaps 5 or more tribal chiefs controlling various lands and weapons. That's without even counting the fact that in any given conflict you have a certain number of local military leaders that just go off and do their own thing regardless of what the established leadership of their region has said is official policy. There could be hundreds of local cells that operate very loosely with their local governing alignment.

    15. 09-15-2019 11:56 AM #39
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      This is old analysis. US production has flatlined since December ‘18. There has been very little non-U.S. growth as West Africa declines and Venezuela basically shut down with no prospect of improvement. Shale will increase a decent bit, but only at substantially higher prices.

      US storage is down below the 5 year moving average. It has plummeted through the summer.
      We're still rolling and appreciate how many suppliers are in the game, there's more suppliers than the market can absorb, Artificial stoppages and *barriers to entry to the market keep the full supply from being brought to market:

      "U.S. Total Oil Output Poised To Set New 2019 Record"

      US oil production keeps accelerating towards new highs. New records are expected both when the final numbers for May emerge and at the end of the year.
      Rystad Energy is raising its forecast for US crude output to 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by December 2019
      . For May 2019, our research and calculations point to crude oil production averaging 12.5 million bpd. Both are new all-time highs.

      Our US supply projections have been revised up yet again. US oil production is already higher than many in the market believe,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Market Research at Rystad Energy.


      * "We continue to expect OPEC production to increase through the remainder of 2019, but risks to short-term supply are undoubtedly still plentiful, with a total of 1.3 million bpd at risk from Iran, Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria,” Tonhaugen said."

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...19-Record.html

    16. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 12:02 PM #40
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni...%80%93present)

      Short version - there is no such unified nation as "Yemen", it's a relatively lawless region that is in a state of civil war with perhaps 5 or more tribal chiefs controlling various lands and weapons. That's without even counting the fact that in any given conflict you have a certain number of local military leaders that just go off and do their own thing regardless of what the established leadership of their region has said is official policy. There could be hundreds of local cells that operate very loosely with their local governing alignment.
      I think Hawk was really referring to the specifics of how something like this attack could be pulled off. Is a simple drone like a DJI going to be able to carry enough explosives to cause such a huge explosion in a petrochemical refinery like they experienced? Or are we talking about something more along the lines of an RQ-2 Pioneer that can carry a 75 lb payload, or even something larger with missiles or bombs that it can drop?

    17. 09-15-2019 12:07 PM #41
      Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
      Can we talk about how Yemen pulled off this attack? Any links with info yet?

      I mean this has got to be one of the first DRONE ATTACKS by a third party player (not state to state) on this kind of scale.

      How big were the drones? What kind of explosive were they carrying and how much? Where exactly were they launched from?

      Pretty scary that if you were a bad actor with a drone and some explosives you could put it nearly anywhere.

      I'm interested in the "how" myself but right now there's no consensus on what type of weapon was used and where it originated. I read that it "may" have come out of Iraq. I'm sure our intelligence people know, it will come out eventually.

      This is all I could find so far:

      "The Wall Street Journal has said experts are investigating whether the attacks could have been carried out from the north - either by Iran or its Shia allies in Iraq - using cruise missiles rather than drones. If so, it seems unlikely they would have escaped detection.

      The Washington Post said the US government believed that 15 buildings at Abqaiq had been damaged on the west-northwest sides, not the southern sides facing Yemen.
      A 2018 UN report concluded that the Houthis' Qatef-1 suicide drone was "virtually identical" to Iran's Ababil-T. The Ababil-T is considered a low-tech drone with a maximum range of about 150km (93 miles).
      The distance from the nearest point of the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border to the closest target - Khurais - is about 770km.
      On Sunday, Iraq denied its territory had been used to launch the attacks."

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49705197

    18. Member
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      09-15-2019 12:15 PM #42
      We can expect a reaction from Trump if gas prices jump before elections. Maybe we help Saudi finish off Yemen, maybe we pull some reserves to lower the gas prices, maybe something else.

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      09-15-2019 12:38 PM #43
      “The oil price could move up $5 to $10 a barrel if it turns out the damage is extensive,” said Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates.
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-o...d=hp_lead_pos3

      with prices in the 50's now this is hardly going to take us up to 100/bbl.
      Quote Originally Posted by David Votoupal
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    20. 09-15-2019 12:44 PM #44
      Quote Originally Posted by Wheelstand View Post
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-o...d=hp_lead_pos3

      with prices in the 50's now this is hardly going to take us up to 100/bbl.
      ^Truth.

      This hurts Saudis Arabi way more than the oil market as a whole.

    21. 09-15-2019 01:34 PM #45
      Can't believe what I'm reading in this thread. Blaming the war in Yemen? Easing the sanctions on Iran? Come on, guys. Look at a map of where this happened and it'll tell you all you need to know. Yemen had nothing to do with this. It was either carried out by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq or Iran itself. No way will Trump go easy on Iran after this. Just like when the Taliban killed a US soldier when they were about to reach a deal with the US, Trump was thinking about going easy on Iran by allowing the Europeans to give them a $15B line of credit to ease their current financial crisis. Now, just as with the Taliban, that is as good as dead. Thankfully, the US is the largest oil producer in the world (though not the largest exporter). We won't suffer as much as the Europeans and Asians. Thank G-d for fracking.

    22. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      09-15-2019 01:45 PM #46
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      We're still rolling and appreciate how many suppliers are in the game, there's more suppliers than the market can absorb, Artificial stoppages and *barriers to entry to the market keep the full supply from being brought to market:

      "U.S. Total Oil Output Poised To Set New 2019 Record"

      US oil production keeps accelerating towards new highs. New records are expected both when the final numbers for May emerge and at the end of the year.
      Rystad Energy is raising its forecast for US crude output to 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by December 2019
      . For May 2019, our research and calculations point to crude oil production averaging 12.5 million bpd. Both are new all-time highs.

      Our US supply projections have been revised up yet again. US oil production is already higher than many in the market believe,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Market Research at Rystad Energy.


      * "We continue to expect OPEC production to increase through the remainder of 2019, but risks to short-term supply are undoubtedly still plentiful, with a total of 1.3 million bpd at risk from Iran, Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria,” Tonhaugen said."

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...19-Record.html
      That Rystad forecast is delusional. They are citing weekly EIA production numbers, which are based on modeling. The actual numbers come out in the monthly EIA 914s. The last monthly EIA data is for June, but it showed 12MMbpd (not 12.5), and down from May provision. Without a price catalyst, there is no way we are hitting 13.4 by year end. Rig counts have been dropping off a cliff through the summer, and completions aren’t doing any better.

      Again, inventories have been drawing much more strongly than normal seasonal movements, and are below the 5 year moving average. That is hardly the stuff of a glut.

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      09-15-2019 02:16 PM #47
      I started typing, almost a full page then decided to delete everything. A picture is worth a thousand words






    24. 09-15-2019 02:21 PM #48
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      I'm interested in the "how" myself but right now there's no consensus on what type of weapon was used and where it originated. I read that it "may" have come out of Iraq. I'm sure our intelligence people know, it will come out eventually.

      This is all I could find so far:

      "The Wall Street Journal has said experts are investigating whether the attacks could have been carried out from the north - either by Iran or its Shia allies in Iraq - using cruise missiles rather than drones. If so, it seems unlikely they would have escaped detection.

      The Washington Post said the US government believed that 15 buildings at Abqaiq had been damaged on the west-northwest sides, not the southern sides facing Yemen.
      A 2018 UN report concluded that the Houthis' Qatef-1 suicide drone was "virtually identical" to Iran's Ababil-T. The Ababil-T is considered a low-tech drone with a maximum range of about 150km (93 miles).
      The distance from the nearest point of the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border to the closest target - Khurais - is about 770km.
      On Sunday, Iraq denied its territory had been used to launch the attacks."

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49705197
      Some images of the drones in question from the article you quote...








      I assume small drones are really hard to shoot down.

    25. 09-15-2019 02:23 PM #49
      Quote Originally Posted by Wheelstand View Post
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-o...d=hp_lead_pos3

      with prices in the 50's now this is hardly going to take us up to 100/bbl.
      Sorry, a bit off topic (I never do that) but how expensive does oil have to get per barrel for the Oil Sands in Canada to be profitable? It's a lot more I think.

    26. 09-15-2019 02:33 PM #50
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      That Rystad forecast is delusional. They are citing weekly EIA production numbers, which are based on modeling. The actual numbers come out in the monthly EIA 914s. The last monthly EIA data is for June, but it showed 12MMbpd (not 12.5), and down from May provision. Without a price catalyst, there is no way we are hitting 13.4 by year end. Rig counts have been dropping off a cliff through the summer, and completions aren’t doing any better.

      Again, inventories have been drawing much more strongly than normal seasonal movements, and are below the 5 year moving average. That is hardly the stuff of a glut.
      What you're missing is capacity and fluctuations in inventory are normal, we can readily supply more in the US as can other oil producing nations.

      There's a glut in that we and other nations have more in reserves and the capacity to oversupply the market if not regulated. OPEC and even the US adjust output. Oil is so low now because of the allowance of more suppliers to sell oil. Russia, Iran, Libya and the like have more capacity too, they are being limited in the market.

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