Then again sure how long it takes to rebuild some of the biggest refineries in the world after they were hit with missiles.
Also there is no way the Saudis take this lying down, they have many billions of state of the art weapons that they are going to rain down on Yemen now. This is just the beginning.
Oil futures are actually down
2006 Slow Honda Insight runabout
2005 Lava Orange MazdaSpeed Miata Ours
2013 Prius V Hers
2007 Jeep GC CDI Ours
2002 Ram Cummins Ours
Including some I'm sure in Syria, Iran and Iraq, be that official employées, informants, or other role. With a combined budget of 100s of billions USD and 100s of thousands of employées combined there is no way that isn't the case. That will surely be increasing now.
Now an official miltary presence is an entirely level of commitment. Hopefully some lessons were learned from the political aftermath of the Iran/Iraq conflict about what can be achieved.
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The effect of this isn’t going to be the attack itself, but the fact that this will make sure the US keeps a hard line on Iran, which will continue to surpress Iranian production. Continued Houthi attacks could put a damper on Saudi production though.
But all of this is just a small part of the story. The bigger part is the declining shale drilling activity. $55 oil was fueled by cheap Wall Street money and over drilling in the shale patch. That’s coming to an end. Turns out most companies aren’t profitable at $55 despite their boasts of sub $30 break evens.
Last edited by Nealric; 09-15-2019 at 09:42 AM.
Can we talk about how Yemen pulled off this attack? Any links with info yet?
I mean this has got to be one of the first DRONE ATTACKS by a third party player (not state to state) on this kind of scale.
How big were the drones? What kind of explosive were they carrying and how much? Where exactly were they launched from?
Pretty scary that if you were a bad actor with a drone and some explosives you could put it nearly anywhere.
Here in Canada I believe anything over 25 kg needs commercial licensing. It's based on weights in most countries. With composites that can be a big device.
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There always was and still is a glut of oil. They argue about slowing production to raise prices as more suppliers come online like Russia and Iran. And in the US we actually became the top oil producer briefly. With current production levels and untapped areas that abound, oil is and will be big business will more suppliers than the market to handle. The Saudi hit was huge to them, half their production, but they account for 10% of global supply, they lost half of that, so globally we've lost 5% capacity. With other nation chomping at the bit to pump, that 5% will be met.
"The United States this year became the largest crude oil producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to preliminary estimates from the Energy Information Administration.
What’s more, the authority said production growth will continue: it has estimated the average for full-2018 will be 10.7 million. That’s a substantial increase on last year’s average of 9.4 million bpd, and production will continue to grow in 2019 as well to 11.5 million bpd.
Conditions are ripe for a further increase in U.S. production. With sanctions against Iran due to enter into effect in November, oil prices will jump higher even though the market has had several months to adjust to the new situation with lower supply. The United States has ensured a cushion of 11 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and OPEC and Russia have promised they would pump more if it is needed."
US storage is down below the 5 year moving average. It has plummeted through the summer.
Short version - there is no such unified nation as "Yemen", it's a relatively lawless region that is in a state of civil war with perhaps 5 or more tribal chiefs controlling various lands and weapons. That's without even counting the fact that in any given conflict you have a certain number of local military leaders that just go off and do their own thing regardless of what the established leadership of their region has said is official policy. There could be hundreds of local cells that operate very loosely with their local governing alignment.
"U.S. Total Oil Output Poised To Set New 2019 Record"
US oil production keeps accelerating towards new highs. New records are expected both when the final numbers for May emerge and at the end of the year.
Rystad Energy is raising its forecast for US crude output to 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by December 2019. For May 2019, our research and calculations point to crude oil production averaging 12.5 million bpd. Both are new all-time highs.
“Our US supply projections have been revised up yet again. US oil production is already higher than many in the market believe,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Market Research at Rystad Energy.
* "We continue to expect OPEC production to increase through the remainder of 2019, but risks to short-term supply are undoubtedly still plentiful, with a total of 1.3 million bpd at risk from Iran, Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria,” Tonhaugen said."
RQ-2 Pioneer that can carry a 75 lb payload, or even something larger with missiles or bombs that it can drop?
This is all I could find so far:
"The Wall Street Journal has said experts are investigating whether the attacks could have been carried out from the north - either by Iran or its Shia allies in Iraq - using cruise missiles rather than drones. If so, it seems unlikely they would have escaped detection.
The Washington Post said the US government believed that 15 buildings at Abqaiq had been damaged on the west-northwest sides, not the southern sides facing Yemen.
A 2018 UN report concluded that the Houthis' Qatef-1 suicide drone was "virtually identical" to Iran's Ababil-T. The Ababil-T is considered a low-tech drone with a maximum range of about 150km (93 miles).
The distance from the nearest point of the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border to the closest target - Khurais - is about 770km.
On Sunday, Iraq denied its territory had been used to launch the attacks."
We can expect a reaction from Trump if gas prices jump before elections. Maybe we help Saudi finish off Yemen, maybe we pull some reserves to lower the gas prices, maybe something else.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-o...d=hp_lead_pos3“The oil price could move up $5 to $10 a barrel if it turns out the damage is extensive,” said Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates.
with prices in the 50's now this is hardly going to take us up to 100/bbl.
Originally Posted by David Votoupal
Can't believe what I'm reading in this thread. Blaming the war in Yemen? Easing the sanctions on Iran? Come on, guys. Look at a map of where this happened and it'll tell you all you need to know. Yemen had nothing to do with this. It was either carried out by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq or Iran itself. No way will Trump go easy on Iran after this. Just like when the Taliban killed a US soldier when they were about to reach a deal with the US, Trump was thinking about going easy on Iran by allowing the Europeans to give them a $15B line of credit to ease their current financial crisis. Now, just as with the Taliban, that is as good as dead. Thankfully, the US is the largest oil producer in the world (though not the largest exporter). We won't suffer as much as the Europeans and Asians. Thank G-d for fracking.
Again, inventories have been drawing much more strongly than normal seasonal movements, and are below the 5 year moving average. That is hardly the stuff of a glut.
I started typing, almost a full page then decided to delete everything. A picture is worth a thousand words
There's a glut in that we and other nations have more in reserves and the capacity to oversupply the market if not regulated. OPEC and even the US adjust output. Oil is so low now because of the allowance of more suppliers to sell oil. Russia, Iran, Libya and the like have more capacity too, they are being limited in the market.