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    1. Member
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      08-12-2019 01:15 PM #101
      Let's throw another wrench into the sh!tstorm this thread has become.

      BEV development is a paralleling self-driving development.
      Is it possible that all the pro/con arguments in this thread are all wrong, because self-driving will eventually make privately owned cars a rare situation?
      BEV ownership rates will never match ICE peak rates, because we won't own the robocars.
      Concerns about refueling times or driving from DC to Chicago will also go away, because you'll never have to recharge a car you don't own.
      You'll never roadtrip in a robocar any further than its economical range, or you'll have to swap cars at regular intervals.

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      08-12-2019 01:16 PM #102
      Quote Originally Posted by Surf Green View Post
      Y'all could call Nine-Eleven when you have to go to the hospital and don't have the electrons to get there yourself.
      We didn't take her to the hospital; we met her there. Pay attn

      Quote Originally Posted by Surf Green View Post
      I mean... this isn't that different of a problem as when the wife brings the car back empty, and you don't realize it until Monday morning before you leave for work.
      Actually it's completely unrelated

      Plus me getting to work is much less high stakes than dealing with all the **** we had to Saturday night. Though if wifey forgot to charge my EV overnight I'd have to go further out of my way and sit and charge longer than just pulling into a gas station on the way and filling up in 5 minutes

      Really not seeing where you were going here

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      08-12-2019 01:22 PM #103
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      Let's throw another wrench into the sh!tstorm this thread has become.

      BEV development is a paralleling self-driving development.
      Is it possible that all the pro/con arguments in this thread are all wrong, because self-driving will eventually make privately owned cars a rare situation?
      BEV ownership rates will never match ICE peak rates, because we won't own the robocars.
      Concerns about refueling times or driving from DC to Chicago will also go away, because you'll never have to recharge a car you don't own.
      You'll never roadtrip in a robocar any further than its economical range, or you'll have to swap cars at regular intervals.
      We are having a robust exchange of views and ideas. I don't see the problem

      You know, as much as people try and tie EVs and automation together, I think they are completely separate, and that automation is much more promising. Real EV demand is questionable... I don't think anyone here would disagree with the notion that the average person hates driving

      Similarly all but the most ardent street driving enthusiasts or paranoid conspiracy theorists could find a use for self driving cars. In addition to basically upending the concept of car ownership for most people, it would make transportation a lot more accessible and affordable to many (think people with **** credit caught up in BHPH hell, old people who can't drive anymore, the disabled, repeat DUI offenders etc). I wouldn't be surprised if it helped environmentally as well by putting people in smaller more efficient vehicles rather than F150s and Hellcats

      But for whatever reason the industry has doubled down on EVs for reasons that aren't clear to me

    5. Member Chris_V's Avatar
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      08-12-2019 01:24 PM #104
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Though if wifey forgot to charge my EV overnight
      I was worried about that as an EV adopter, too. Then, one time I did forget to plug in and my car texted me to tell me it was scheduled to be plugged in. The Volt knows when I normally plug in and texts me when it's not plugged in during those hours. I'm sure other EVs can do the same...
      "Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection"

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      08-12-2019 01:26 PM #105
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      I was worried about that as an EV adopter, too. Then, one time I did forget to plug in and my car texted me to tell me it was scheduled to be plugged in. The Volt knows when I normally plug in and texts me when it's not plugged in during those hours. I'm sure other EVs can do the same...
      Add in the fact that you could drive it with the gas engine and it's completely moot. I really like the Voltec drivetrain for that reason. It's literally the best of both worlds.
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      08-12-2019 01:37 PM #106
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      We are having a robust exchange of views and ideas. I don't see the problem

      You know, as much as people try and tie EVs and automation together, I think they are completely separate, and that automation is much more promising. Real EV demand is questionable... I don't think anyone here would disagree with the notion that the average person hates driving

      Similarly all but the most ardent street driving enthusiasts or paranoid conspiracy theorists could find a use for self driving cars. In addition to basically upending the concept of car ownership for most people, it would make transportation a lot more accessible and affordable to many (think people with **** credit caught up in BHPH hell, old people who can't drive anymore, the disabled, repeat DUI offenders etc). I wouldn't be surprised if it helped environmentally as well by putting people in smaller more efficient vehicles rather than F150s and Hellcats

      But for whatever reason the industry has doubled down on EVs for reasons that aren't clear to me
      That was my basic point, in my previous post.
      The concerns about range/range anxiety will go away when a different robocar will drop you off/pick you up from the train/barbershop/Blockbuster.
      The race to get to 300-500 mile range batteries might ultimately be unnecessary for how most people will use cars.

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      08-12-2019 01:39 PM #107
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      off/pick you up from the train/barbershop/Blockbuster.
      I needed that chuckle.
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      08-12-2019 01:48 PM #108
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      That was my basic point, in my previous post.
      The concerns about range/range anxiety will go away when a different robocar will drop you off/pick you up from the train/barbershop/Blockbuster.
      The race to get to 300-500 mile range batteries might ultimately be unnecessary for how most people will use cars.
      I think the industry as we know it might go away if autonomy actually becomes a thing. The only people who will still care about individual brands/models will be enthusiasts who still drive and clout chasers who want to be seen. All the rest of the revenue would go to whoever could provide the rides. That seems like something way more worthy of the industry's fear than EVs

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      08-12-2019 01:55 PM #109
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      I was worried about that as an EV adopter, too. Then, one time I did forget to plug in and my car texted me to tell me it was scheduled to be plugged in. The Volt knows when I normally plug in and texts me when it's not plugged in during those hours. I'm sure other EVs can do the same...
      I hadn't realized that the Volt will do this. I have to ask my son if his two Volts are set up to do this.

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      08-12-2019 02:00 PM #110
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      I hadn't realized that the Volt will do this. I have to ask my son if his two Volts are set up to do this.
      What's weird is that the text comes from OnStar, but I don't HAVE OnStar... I did originally, for the free three year initial run. But I'm not paying $30-40 a month to have the remote control on my phone, lol.
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      08-12-2019 02:02 PM #111
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      So municipalities and countries pledging to ban non-EVs isn't force?
      I haven't heard of many US based municipalities doing this. Talking about it? That's different. I want to see concrete action.

      Again I'm not saying EVs shouldn't exist- just that people should continue to have an opportunity to opt out.
      Well thankfully it's not up to you. And you will have the ability to opt out, via ICE. Or feet. Or bike. Or horse. More on that in a sec, though...

      The same standardization could (and to a degree kind of is, and IMO should) happen with ICE engines too though. I'm pretty sure I made a thread about the insanity of all these different 2.0Ts running around. We are kind of there already with transmissions.
      Transmissions? Maybe. The only standardization in engines is the TYPE of engine - a 2.0T - not who actually built and engineered it. SO that argument is null and void.

      **** like this is why it's hard for me to take pro EV people serious. What the hell do horses to cars have to do with ICEVs vs BEVs? The benefits and advantages of going to a car vs a horse is pretty obvious today and was even back when cars were new. Like I asked before, what are the clear cut advantages of BEVs over ICEVs for everybody?

      Plus since we are copy and pasting adoption rates... the Model T came out in 1908. By 1918 about 20% of the US had motor vehicles. By 1928 it was half the country. Let's be generous and use the Model S (and not GM's EV1) as the starting point. Do you see EV adoption rates in the US hitting 20% in the next 3 years? Or 50% by 2032? Just from that alone you can't use the horse to car analogy as a 1 for 1 swap.
      Hey, if you are going to troll and be a d-bag, I am going to treat you like one. Horses-> cars is a very similar analogy to ICE -> EVs. In both cases it is a sea change in how people get around, and in the car's case, there was resistance to adoption AND lack of infrastructure. Let me know if any of this sounds familiar.

      It sounds to me like you admit that EVs will eventually replace ICE, you just don't know when that will happen. On that point, we agree. I don't know when the EV/ICE tipping point will be and I am sure its a few years out, but you're a fool if you think it won't get here. You are seeing major earnings dips, consolidation, and preparation for all of these car makers to switch over to EV power. It's happening, and the next gen of cars sitting on drawing boards RIGHT NOW will look a hell of a lot different then they have been up to now.

      Adoption of the car over the horse happened fast. They went from 0 to half in about 20 years. Historically that's about the norm for tech adoption that consumers actually want. BEV adoption is glacial by comparison, especially when you factor in all the govt push trying to make it happen. Correct me if I'm wrong but there were no big govt rebates or mandates to get people to trade their horses in for cars or to buy fridges and cell phones. So why ignore that pretty critical difference when making your analogy?
      The first mass market electrified car that saw acceptance was the Toyota Prius. That hit the market in 1998. Here we are in the waning days of 2018 (20 years later) and we have a viable, competitive luxury car maker that's totally EV, they have a infrastructure network, and all major manufacturers are making serious investment into the technology - in some cases, killing (or nearly killing) the ICE models they are replacing them with. Hell, some people here who would never have owned EVs are making threads about their first. (Not to pick on Dempsey, but there's Exhibit 1 right there). In 5 years, the new car market is going to look a lot different than it does right now. You're trying to make the goal posts stationary and this game doesn't work like that.

      The difference you cite in government incentives is the market resistance due to cost. Once you overcome that, the incentives will go away (and already are). And besides, if your problem is government mandates and subsidization, I have news for you - its all over the place depending on what you define as a subsidy. Don't buy any farm products.



      I mean....I don't know how much more blatant you can get.
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      08-12-2019 02:20 PM #112
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Really not seeing where you were going here
      Sorry, I misread about your date with grandma. Although that doesn't change the fact that pretty much nothing else you've ever said about electric cars makes any sense.
      I keep up with traffic with only 90 hp. What's your superpower?
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    14. Member Itgb's Avatar
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      08-12-2019 02:36 PM #113
      Quote Originally Posted by Surf Green View Post
      Although that doesn't change the fact that pretty much nothing else you've ever said about electric cars makes any sense.
      Some people fear change, others embrace it.
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      08-12-2019 03:07 PM #114
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      I haven't heard of many US based municipalities doing this. Talking about it? That's different. I want to see concrete action.
      Here you go

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-..._jurisdictions


      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      Well thankfully it's not up to you. And you will have the ability to opt out, via ICE. Or feet. Or bike. Or horse. More on that in a sec, though...
      Not if new ICE sales are banned. Eventually there won't be any left to buy, or the infrastructure to support them.


      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      Transmissions? Maybe. The only standardization in engines is the TYPE of engine - a 2.0T - not who actually built and engineered it. SO that argument is null and void.
      Right, which is why everyone actually using the same 2.0T would make sense, just as it does for EV drivetrains. Understand?

      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      Hey, if you are going to troll and be a d-bag, I am going to treat you like one. Horses-> cars is a very similar analogy to ICE -> EVs. In both cases it is a sea change in how people get around, and in the car's case, there was resistance to adoption AND lack of infrastructure. Let me know if any of this sounds familiar.

      It sounds to me like you admit that EVs will eventually replace ICE, you just don't know when that will happen. On that point, we agree. I don't know when the EV/ICE tipping point will be and I am sure its a few years out, but you're a fool if you think it won't get here. You are seeing major earnings dips, consolidation, and preparation for all of these car makers to switch over to EV power. It's happening, and the next gen of cars sitting on drawing boards RIGHT NOW will look a hell of a lot different then they have been up to now.
      I mean a lot of things sound a certain way to you; that doesn't mean that's what's being said. No, I don't think EVs will replace ICE, and neither do you:

      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      you will have the ability to opt out, via ICE.
      Not to mention, manufacturers pouring money into EVs, or earnings dipping or w/e doesn't mean EVs replacing ICEs is a foregone conclusion. In VW's case the push is a big move to try and atone for Dieselgate, as well as a response to shareholders' obsession with and mistaking of Tesla as a "tech" company rather than a car company. It has nothing to do with actual market demand or future viability of the technology.

      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      The first mass market electrified car that saw acceptance was the Toyota Prius. That hit the market in 1998. Here we are in the waning days of 2018 (20 years later) and we have a viable, competitive luxury car maker that's totally EV, they have a infrastructure network, and all major manufacturers are making serious investment into the technology - in some cases, killing (or nearly killing) the ICE models they are replacing them with. Hell, some people here who would never have owned EVs are making threads about their first. (Not to pick on Dempsey, but there's Exhibit 1 right there). In 5 years, the new car market is going to look a lot different than it does right now. You're trying to make the goal posts stationary and this game doesn't work like that.

      The difference you cite in government incentives is the market resistance due to cost. Once you overcome that, the incentives will go away (and already are). And besides, if your problem is government mandates and subsidization, I have news for you - its all over the place depending on what you define as a subsidy. Don't buy any farm products.

      I mean....I don't know how much more blatant you can get.
      So again, coming back to the horse to cars analogy.... it's taken 20 years for electrified vehicles to achieve about 4% of market share. Again I think regular cars were over 50% by this time. How in the **** are they comparable?

      And incentives are increasing, globally. Mandates are also increasing and looming. So it's hardly a "help it get over the goal line" thing.

      At this rate, in another 20 years we won't even be at 10%; yet we have about a dozen countries, including China and India, proclaiming they will ban all ICE cars (some in ~11 years). Something is not adding up here.

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      08-12-2019 03:08 PM #115
      Quote Originally Posted by Surf Green View Post
      Sorry, I misread about your date with grandma. Although that doesn't change the fact that pretty much nothing else you've ever said about electric cars makes any sense.
      Why not just say "I don't like you CTK" whenever you see a post from me? Would save us both a lot of time and be more honest.

    17. I need new ones NeverEnoughCars's Avatar
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      08-12-2019 03:19 PM #116
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      So 2 cities in the US signed a vague declaration with no force of law and that is your proof?
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
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      08-12-2019 03:24 PM #117
      Quote Originally Posted by NeverEnoughCars View Post
      So 2 cities in the US signed a vague declaration with no force of law and that is your proof?
      Are you aware that there are other countries in the world besides the US?

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      08-12-2019 05:29 PM #118
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Not if new ICE sales are banned. Eventually there won't be any left to buy, or the infrastructure to support them.

      I mean a lot of things sound a certain way to you; that doesn't mean that's what's being said. No, I don't think EVs will replace ICE, and neither do you:
      How do you account for these two? Are they going to be banned or will they never replace ICE powered cars? It can't be both.



      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      So again, coming back to the horse to cars analogy.... it's taken 20 years for electrified vehicles to achieve about 4% of market share. Again I think regular cars were over 50% by this time. How in the **** are they comparable?

      And incentives are increasing, globally. Mandates are also increasing and looming. So it's hardly a "help it get over the goal line" thing.

      At this rate, in another 20 years we won't even be at 10%; yet we have about a dozen countries, including China and India, proclaiming they will ban all ICE cars (some in ~11 years). Something is not adding up here.
      Don't worry about what politicians in other countries say. California had a law on the books that X% of cars sold there had to be electric by something like 2005, but that wasn't yet possible so they backed off (which is why GM sunk a billion dollars into the EV1 program). In case you weren't aware, politicians like to make headlines and they don't care if it's technically accurate or even possible.

      Back to the real world... How long do you think it took the car to truly replace the horse as a means of locomotion? The car as we know it was invented in 1886, but it wasn't until the Model T hit that it started to really become affordable. That was in 1908 when it started production, but it took until 1927 before they finished their 15 million car run. They were one of the most successful cars ever built, yet as far as market penetration goes that's almost 20 years to get 15 million in a nation of 119 million people (as of 1927).

      That's over 40 years after the invention of the car, and yet cars weren't yet ubiquitous.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      08-12-2019 06:26 PM #119
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      How do you account for these two? Are they going to be banned or will they never replace ICE powered cars? It can't be both.





      Don't worry about what politicians in other countries say. California had a law on the books that X% of cars sold there had to be electric by something like 2005, but that wasn't yet possible so they backed off (which is why GM sunk a billion dollars into the EV1 program). In case you weren't aware, politicians like to make headlines and they don't care if it's technically accurate or even possible.

      Back to the real world... How long do you think it took the car to truly replace the horse as a means of locomotion? The car as we know it was invented in 1886, but it wasn't until the Model T hit that it started to really become affordable. That was in 1908 when it started production, but it took until 1927 before they finished their 15 million car run. They were one of the most successful cars ever built, yet as far as market penetration goes that's almost 20 years to get 15 million in a nation of 119 million people (as of 1927).

      That's over 40 years after the invention of the car, and yet cars weren't yet ubiquitous.
      I wish this stupid analogy would die. By these new goalposts the first BEVs came out before the first ICEs. No matter what metrics of innovation or starting point you use, BEVs are lagging.

    21. 08-12-2019 06:33 PM #120
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      BEVs are lagging.
      Shhh. Don't tell the truth, you might be "disappeared" for it.
      Last edited by AC1DD; 08-12-2019 at 07:06 PM.

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      08-12-2019 07:04 PM #121
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I wish this stupid analogy would die. By these new goalposts the first BEVs came out before the first ICEs. No matter what metrics of innovation or starting point you use, BEVs are lagging.
      BEVs outnumbered ICE vehicles at least in NYC at the turn of the century. If the assembly line took off under an electric vehicle manufacturer then there is a good chance it would have taken even longer for ICE vehicles to take off. They might even be seen today as an antiquated mode of transportation just like steam.
      So that is not really moving goalposts. That is just facts. Sorry if you view facts as fake news.
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
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      08-12-2019 07:28 PM #122
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      So again, coming back to the horse to cars analogy.... it's taken 20 years for electrified vehicles to achieve about 4% of market share. Again I think regular cars were over 50% by this time. How in the **** are they comparable?

      And incentives are increasing, globally. Mandates are also increasing and looming. So it's hardly a "help it get over the goal line" thing.

      At this rate, in another 20 years we won't even be at 10%; yet we have about a dozen countries, including China and India, proclaiming they will ban all ICE cars (some in ~11 years). Something is not adding up here.
      In the USA, it appears we have doubled sales by % from about 1.5% to about 3% in the the course of 1 year (mainly due to the Model 3's success). If we continue to double sales by % even only every 18 months, in 6 years the US would be at about 50%. Perhaps that is overly optimistic but I think we could get to 50% in your 20 year time frame (in the USA). Other places like the EU and China could also get there as fast or even faster as they have more government push. Norway is at nearly 50% now.

    24. 08-12-2019 07:38 PM #123
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      In the USA, it appears we have doubled sales by % from about 1.5% to about 3% in the the course of 1 year (mainly due to the Model 3's success). If we continue to double sales by % even only every 18 months, in 6 years the US would be at about 50%. Perhaps that is overly optimistic but I think we could get to 50% in your 20 year time frame (in the USA). Other places like the EU and China could also get there as fast or even faster as they have more government push. Norway is at nearly 50% now.

      Correct US figure for 2018 is 2.1%

    25. 08-12-2019 08:10 PM #124
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      Which is the point of EV adoption. You DO change your thinking.
      Exactly. This is why it is often referred to as a paradigm shift, and I admit it caught me off guard. I bought my Leaf just "as a one-year experiment," and going into it I thought I had considered every angle of EV ownership. I was wrong. I didn't realize how drastically EV ownership would/could change my entire outlook on driving until I actually began using the car every day.

      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      nor do you want to pay to "fill up" outside your home.
      Like all EV owners, I love free public charging. However, many public chargers require payment... and, from what I've seen in the last 2 1/2 months, those that require payment always cost considerably more than my at-home charging. If I'm just driving around my local area--as I do in 99% of my usual driving--there is no way I want to pay an inflated price to charge up (unless some emergency absolutely demands it). That's why I have never paid for public charging on my Leaf--if there is no convenient free charger to use, I'll plug in at home. (The fact that I have, to date, only charged at home 4 times shows how often that happens.)

      Road tripping would be a different story, of course. In that situation, I'd have no choice... and I would happily use the plentiful roadside quick chargers along the way. (I envision doing this in the future after I swap my Leaf for a Bolt.)

      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      But potty breaks are a real thing, too as Crispy is showing us in his road trip Prius thread.
      This is the biggest reason I am baffled by folks who decry needing a 20-minute stop in the middle of a 5-hour road trip... and I don't even have kids! Maybe I drink more when driving than some other folks. Hell, sometimes it's nice to just get out of the car and stretch/walk a bit to relieve road fatigue.

      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      why on Google Earth would you not want to stay as fully charged as possible?
      I did this at first, but I quickly learned it isn't necessary. (There's that paradigm shift again.) Soon you get comfortable even when your charge indicator is below half. As I type this, my Leaf is out in the parking lot and it only shows 18% charge. Nevertheless, that will take me home (with one errand stop on the way) and then also take me to my planned dinner destination (where there is a free charger I intend to use while I eat). My first errand tomorrow morning will take me directly to another free charger, so it is very probable that I won't even plug in tonight. I have become quite comfortable with this.

      But to answer your question more directly, why wouldn't I want to be as fully charged as possible? Simple: because, for me, charging is usually a convenience. I know that blows your mind, but it's true. I usually plug in when and where convenient, and only while I'm busy doing other things--such as eating dinner at a restaurant. But when I'm done eating, I'm ready to move on. Non-EV owners think they would need to just sit there in the car and wait for it to finish charging. Nope. I'll be on my way and I'll pick up some more free charge when the next convenient opportunity presents itself. The only reason I would stay there and keep charging was if I absolutely needed that charge to get to my next destination, and so far that has proven to be very rare for me.

      Yes, this does mean I need to put some thought into planning my day. If I know I'll need to drive to a destination tomorrow morning that is 70 miles away, then of course I'll plug in at home tonight and get the battery full. But out-of-the-blue trips of that distance just don't happen very often--not to me, anyway. That's why/how I've become comfortable just picking up charge where I can, as I can.

      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Just this weekend we were out on a date, and grandma had to go to the ER while she was babysitting for us. By your logic, we might not have had enough charge to go out of our way to the hospital and then get home
      Even at my current 'caution: low battery' 18% state of charge, I can hop in my Leaf right now and comfortably make it to any one of the four hospitals nearest me. As an added bonus, at least two of those hospitals have free public chargers in their parking lots.

      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      If anything, staying topped up becomes even more of a priority, at least until charging stations become more ubiquitous.
      This was my thought process going into buying my Leaf. But driving it has shown me how many public chargers there are around me. Seriously, there are many more than I realized.

      And now it has become something of a game for me: can I find more of them? I consult PlugShare almost daily, to see new plugs that other users have added and also to add ones I discover which are not yet listed. Sometimes I see plugs listed but with conflicting info (one person says payment is required, someone else says it is free) and, in my free time, I will drive to that charger just to find out the truth. If it is free, I will plug in... and then while the car charges, I will multi-task by updating the PlugShare entry, taking and uploading a couple of photos, etc. After I'm finished making updates, I will unplug and move along. It's fun in a geeky sort of way.

      Quote Originally Posted by Chris_V View Post
      When there's a destination charger that will charge the car up over a period of time that you're doing something else, then you don't want to charge in between any more than it takes to get to that destination
      That's another way to put it.

      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      BEV development is a paralleling self-driving development.
      I hadn't ever thought about it this way. Hmm. I still see a major difference between the two. In my mind, people are reluctant to adopt EVs due primarily to cost or (perceived lack of) infrastructure--they like the idea of driving an EV, but are unsure if they can afford it or make it work for them. On the other hand, I think most people are reluctant to adopt self-driving cars out of mistrust of the technology--at least according to many people I speak to in my job, most tell me they feel that self-driving tech isn't quite ready for prime time yet and is too dangerous to trust.

      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      In case you weren't aware, politicians like to make headlines and they don't care if it's technically accurate or even possible.
      I think that is CARB's mantra right there.
      Dempsey Bowling
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      My fleet: 91 Miata (5.0L swap project), 98 Wrangler Sport, 01 Suburban 2500 8.1L, 80 Grand Prix LJ 454, 86 GLHS #75, 13 Leaf SV

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      08-12-2019 09:51 PM #125
      Quote Originally Posted by spockcat View Post
      In the USA, it appears we have doubled sales by % from about 1.5% to about 3% in the the course of 1 year (mainly due to the Model 3's success). If we continue to double sales by % even only every 18 months, in 6 years the US would be at about 50%. Perhaps that is overly optimistic but I think we could get to 50% in your 20 year time frame (in the USA). Other places like the EU and China could also get there as fast or even faster as they have more government push. Norway is at nearly 50% now.
      We will just have to see. My main issue is that the change has to be cajoled through incentives and mandates. No tech that was adopted quickly got there that way. A lot of technologies had help in R&D from the govt until they became commercially viable, but not help to capture market share before they were fully cooked. We are putting the cart before the horse

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