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    1. Member
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      08-09-2019 05:38 PM #51
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Look at most of the cars out there now. They aren't enthusiast vehicles, they're daily drivers. Now look how most people would see a 20+ year old Pontiac Grand Am beater. That's how they're going to seem to most folks.

      Personally I don't give a damn what anyone thinks, but I'm not the "keeping up with the Joneses" type. At all. Why do you think I'm still driving the Fit? Because it still works fine. I may or may not be one of those people driving a gasser in 20 years (but most likely not for my daily).
      Actually, the average car on the road is getting older, so increasingly people give less and less of a **** about being seen in something old. I sincerely hope and am pretty sure that BEVs have more to offer than being political tools and status symbols.

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    3. Geriatric Member absoluteczech's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 05:40 PM #52
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      Exaggerating the difference between an inefficient gas vehicle and an efficient one, and then minimizing the difference between an HEV and a BEV is... disingenuous.

      Granted, regional difference mean a lot. Where I live, a 55mpg hybrid like a Prius would cost me $0.06/mi ($3.28/gal). An EV charged at home can get under $0.02 ($0.075/kWh all-in off peak, ~4mi/kWh). It gets closer in places where gas is cheap and electricity expensive. Sounds like TurboMinivan doesn't drive much, but if you're like me and do 1500 miles a month, the BEV saves an additional $60/mo compared to the hybrid.

      1500 miles in a
      Suburban - $307.50
      Edge - $213.91
      Civic 1.5T CVT - $136.67
      Rav4 Hybrid - $123.00
      Prius - $94.62
      Leaf - $33.75
      IoniqEV - $28.13
      And youre not even adding savings from Oil changes and other ICE related maintenance.

    4. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 05:47 PM #53
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Actually, the average car on the road is getting older, so increasingly people give less and less of a **** about being seen in something old. I sincerely hope and am pretty sure that BEVs have more to offer than being political tools and status symbols.
      Of course it is, but that's because they're getting more reliable. That doesn't mean that people want to drive old cars and it doesn't mean that they don't long for the day that they won't have to drive old ones. Surprise! People want new stuff. Apparently this is new to you, as you're under the impression that people don't care, yet here they are on $800 phones that they use for a year or two.

      Political BS aside, if an EV costs the same, but much less to run and they can do the job then they're going to come on like gangbusters. Deny it all you want, but $ will tell the tale.


      Change is coming, as it always is.
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    5. Senior Member 6cylVWguy's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 05:55 PM #54
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      No, they'll sell when they're on the same pricing plane as a gas car.
      You're 100% wrong on this.


      The only real hurdles to overcome are manufacturing capacity and cost of batteries. That's it. Once that's down to the point of making the car as cheap as a gas car then the adoption rate of electric cars will soar.
      No, not really. You're basically describing a golf cart in Boca at a retirement community. Not something that can be used as conveniently as an ICE car. I mean if your assertion was correct, there wouldn't be charging stations at offices or rest stops. Tesla wouldn't spend anywhere close to the money that they have on their own charging infrastructure. You're clearly missing something here, not sure what it is. Relying only on charging at home is a non-starter if you're of the opinion that ICE will be phased out. I mean what would be really cool is if someone found a way to wirelessly charge cars like they do with cell phones---and taking it a step further, in some way implanting wireless charging directly into the road thereby completely avoiding the need for charging stations entirely. If this was ever to happen, bye-bye ICE almost immediately.


      They aren't going to work for 100% of the people,
      Right now, they work for far fewer than 100% of people. Unless you have no money and are homeless, ICE works for everyone. If EVs are going to replace ICE, they need to work for exactly the same proportion of people.

    6. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 05:56 PM #55
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      if an EV costs the same, but much less to run and they can do the job then they're going to come on like gangbusters.
      Well it's going to be a gradual shift no matter what because of the time it will take to build battery factories, or so it seems. I'd be shocked if it takes more than 15 years for EVs to make up at least 25% of new car sales though. Maybe even a third by then.

    7. 08-09-2019 06:12 PM #56
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      Well it's going to be a gradual shift no matter what because of the time it will take to build battery factories, or so it seems. I'd be shocked if it takes more than 15 years for EVs to make up at least 25% of new car sales though. Maybe even a third by then.
      If you're specifically referring to the US market it will take a far longer time than that. I'd say unless significant advancements occur for EV batteries and how they function, the % of US electric vehicle sales will be far less than 10% in 15 years. I'd say at the current abilities of EV it will take 100 years or so to have the majority of passenger vehicles to be EV.

    8. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 07:16 PM #57
      Quote Originally Posted by SoTxBill View Post
      looking at solar this year,,,,, it is a 15 to 20 year payback... just in time for the solar panels to start declining. I am 65 so the payback is not interesting for even more reasons. Your solar sales people must be different from our solar sales people. And the power companies can change the buy back policies anytime so those systems can actually be a loss as some states have already changed.. And then you buy batteries on top and replace them as well. Then a hail storm or lightning hit??? Guess some folks can live in a cave and eat bugs, but I'm just not there. I will go out with a/c running full bore as long as I can afford it. Most folks will buy the car they can afford and meets their lifestyle, so the greenies, commies, left, right, up, down, pink, yellow, red, blue..... be damned.

      Good news is... the end of the world will be postponed due to the lack of combustible fuel.
      <7 year payback on my 8.7 kW system. You need to find a better solar salesman.

    9. Member BLK9GEN's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 07:16 PM #58
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      If you're specifically referring to the US market it will take a far longer time than that. I'd say unless significant advancements occur for EV batteries and how they function, the % of US electric vehicle sales will be far less than 10% in 15 years. I'd say at the current abilities of EV it will take 100 years or so to have the majority of passenger vehicles to be EV.
      Really?? 100 years? In the near future (2-3 years from now) we will have multiple EVs capable of 250-350kw fast charging and 350-400 miles of range. Additionally, there are several hundred more quick charging locations from Electrify America, Tesla, Nissan, and others due to come online in the U.S. by the end of 2020 as well as several new Gigafactory style battery factories around the globe in the planning or construction phase.

      I think there will always be opposition to EVs by certain folks for various reasons, but I think widespread adoption by all but budget segment buyers will take place within approximately 20-25 years.

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      08-09-2019 08:00 PM #59
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      Really?? 100 years? In the near future (2-3 years from now) we will have multiple EVs capable of 250-350kw fast charging and 350-400 miles of range. Additionally, there are several hundred more quick charging locations from Electrify America, Tesla, Nissan, and others due to come online in the U.S. by the end of 2020 as well as several new Gigafactory style battery factories around the globe in the planning or construction phase.

      I think there will always be opposition to EVs by certain folks for various reasons, but I think widespread adoption by all but budget segment buyers will take place within approximately 20-25 years.

      Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
      I think EVs will capture more market share over that time, but I'd also wager that there will still be incentives and mandates to get them to critical mass (let's call it >50% of the market)

      Plus people talk about 250-350kW chargers like that's impressive. Let's go super conservative and get the charge time of 80% of a little 60kWh battery witha 350kW charger. That's still 8 minutes for about 160 miles. Chump change compared to the 2-3 minutes it takes on a good gas pump for double to triple that mileage. On a road trip that's still going to add up, especially compared to a hybrid which can easily get 700-800 miles from a 2 minute pump.

      And there's still the weather

      So barring some miracle battery/supercapacitor technology we don't know about, let's at least concede that with known battery tech, even with price parity there will always be some downsides with regard to charging time on long trips and range variability in general

    11. Member BLK9GEN's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 08:26 PM #60
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I think EVs will capture more market share over that time, but I'd also wager that there will still be incentives and mandates to get them to critical mass (let's call it >50% of the market)

      Plus people talk about 250-350kW chargers like that's impressive. Let's go super conservative and get the charge time of 80% of a little 60kWh battery witha 350kW charger. That's still 8 minutes for about 160 miles. Chump change compared to the 2-3 minutes it takes on a good gas pump for double to triple that mileage. On a road trip that's still going to add up, especially compared to a hybrid which can easily get 700-800 miles from a 2 minute pump.

      And there's still the weather

      So barring some miracle battery/supercapacitor technology we don't know about, let's at least concede that with known battery tech, even with price parity there will always be some downsides with regard to charging time on long trips and range variability in general
      Omg, 8 minutes for 180 miles of range (160 is on the low end) to recharge on a road trip?! The absolute horror! Use the restroom, buy a snack and you're done. Most of your "refueling" will be done when you're sleeping or doing other things at home so it's not like the vast majority of owners will be charging this way on a regular basis. For apartment dwellers this will require some planning, sure. But you can charge at the grocery store or shopping mall or movie theater and even if you have to charge at the quick charger once a week it's really not that much time.

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      08-09-2019 08:43 PM #61
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      No, they'll sell when they're on the same pricing plane as a gas car. People will begin to be more objective. They'll begin to think "Why would I pay to fuel my car every week when I can drive this electric car for 1/5 as much running costs, charge at home and have fewer repairs? Sure, it may take longer than 20 years, but not too much. The bigger problem is charging infrastructure in cities. Once the demand is there then parking garages will offer charging, as will apartment buildings.



      If memory serves Buffet was supposedly driving an old Camry.

      The only real hurdles to overcome are manufacturing capacity and cost of batteries. That's it. Once that's down to the point of making the car as cheap as a gas car then the adoption rate of electric cars will soar.




      Of course they will. They aren't going to work for 100% of the people, but when they cost the same as a gasser and the gasser needs more $ to keep it going (because it has MUCH higher running costs) then suddenly people are going to stop and think, which they're not really doing yet because they aren't taking them seriously/they're looked at as expensive playthings. When it hits them in the pocketbook they will.



      White trash don't drive new cars. I remember when the fwd Grand Am came out. No, it wasn't a Porsche by any stretch, but it didn't yet have the stigma that you (rightfully, for the most part) give it.
      In CT it sure as hell did. Maybe in (ahem) southern IN things were different.
      Quote Originally Posted by Volkl View Post
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    13. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 09:58 PM #62
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      That's still 8 minutes for about 160 miles. Chump change compared to the 2-3 minutes it takes on a good gas pump for double to triple that mileage. On a road trip that's still going to add up, especially compared to a hybrid which can easily get 700-800 miles from a 2 minute pump.
      Anybody who doesn't have an extra 4 minutes at each break on a 15+ hour road trip is going to fly instead of driving.

    14. 08-09-2019 10:17 PM #63
      You could rent an ICE for those long road trip. I recall reading in an old Canadian VW brochure that the VW e-Golf came with free ICE car rental for long road trips. It is easy to find charging stations in populated areas. Go up north and you may have to carry jerry can of gas just in case between gas stations. Or tow an extra battery pack if you must EV it.

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      08-09-2019 10:27 PM #64
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      Omg, 8 minutes for 180 miles of range (160 is on the low end) to recharge on a road trip?! The absolute horror! Use the restroom, buy a snack and you're done. Most of your "refueling" will be done when you're sleeping or doing other things at home so it's not like the vast majority of owners will be charging this way on a regular basis. For apartment dwellers this will require some planning, sure. But you can charge at the grocery store or shopping mall or movie theater and even if you have to charge at the quick charger once a week it's really not that much time.

      Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
      exactly. owning an EV is already a VERY reasonable compromise for the vast majority.

      but trust me, we'll find excuses.
      http://badges.fuelly.com/images/sig-metric/286588.png
      Any car which holds together for a whole race is too heavy.

    16. 08-09-2019 10:44 PM #65
      Quote Originally Posted by worth_fixing View Post
      exactly. owning an EV is already a VERY reasonable compromise for the vast majority.

      but trust me, we'll find excuses.
      It might be, but consumers don't care, and aren't buying them. Well most consumers aren't interested or buying them in the USA.
      Only 2% of all vehicle sales in the USA were plug in in 2018
      .

    17. Member Tommietank's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 10:55 PM #66
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      Granted, regional difference mean a lot.
      1500 miles in a
      Suburban - $307.50
      Edge - $213.91
      Civic 1.5T CVT - $136.67
      Rav4 Hybrid - $123.00
      Prius - $94.62
      Leaf - $33.75
      IoniqEV - $28.13

      Use the Fueleconomy.gov site for the best comparisons. Check it out here https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...id=40844&#tab1

      Fuel Costs Per Year for example.
      Suburban: $3,150
      Civic: $1,250
      Prius: $800
      Model 3: $500



      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      That's still 8 minutes for about 160 miles. Chump change compared to the 2-3 minutes it takes on a good gas pump for double to triple that mileage. On a road trip that's still going to add up, especially compared to a hybrid which can easily get 700-800 miles from a 2 minute pump.
      Mannnnnnn, if 5 minutes difference over 6 hours is that important, what in the world are you running from??

      Slow Car Fast

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      08-09-2019 11:03 PM #67
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      Omg, 8 minutes for 180 miles of range (160 is on the low end) to recharge on a road trip?! The absolute horror! Use the restroom, buy a snack and you're done. Most of your "refueling" will be done when you're sleeping or doing other things at home so it's not like the vast majority of owners will be charging this way on a regular basis. For apartment dwellers this will require some planning, sure. But you can charge at the grocery store or shopping mall or movie theater and even if you have to charge at the quick charger once a week it's really not that much time.

      Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
      Exactly. And I’d argue it’s possible the EV owner will spend LESS time as a whole waiting on refueling/charging because the ONLY time you’d be waiting on a charger is on a road trip. Every other time it’s while I sleep - in my own garage.

    19. Member worth_fixing's Avatar
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      08-10-2019 02:16 AM #68
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      It might be, but consumers don't care, and aren't buying them. Well most consumers aren't interested or buying them in the USA.
      Only 2% of all vehicle sales in the USA were plug in in 2018
      .
      it would be cool to see the exact thought process of every canadian and american who buys a car new and their reasoning for dismissing one. i'd be very curious...
      http://badges.fuelly.com/images/sig-metric/286588.png
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    20. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-10-2019 03:22 PM #69
      Quote Originally Posted by worth_fixing View Post
      it would be cool to see the exact thought process of every canadian and american who buys a car new and their reasoning for dismissing one. i'd be very curious...
      Well according to this 2019 automotive buying study vehicle specifications only make up 38% of the decision in the first place. So of that 38%, probably horsepower, cupholders, front seat headroom, how loud the stereo gets, how big the infotainment screen is, and how powerful the heater/air conditioning are are among the top specifications buyers look at. Maximum range probably isn't a top consideration for a lot of buyers.

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      08-10-2019 04:03 PM #70
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      Omg, 8 minutes for 180 miles of range (160 is on the low end) to recharge on a road trip?! The absolute horror! Use the restroom, buy a snack and you're done. Most of your "refueling" will be done when you're sleeping or doing other things at home so it's not like the vast majority of owners will be charging this way on a regular basis. For apartment dwellers this will require some planning, sure. But you can charge at the grocery store or shopping mall or movie theater and even if you have to charge at the quick charger once a week it's really not that much time.

      Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
      It's longer than that. You obviously have to pull off, find a charger, plug in and then pull back out. So it's probably more like 15 minutes a stop. Over a couple hundred miles that's gonna add up. But w/e, you got me on that. How about the ****ty payback, weak emissions reduced per kWh, the blatant politicization of EVs and the simple fact that the "inevitable" future has to be forced with mandates and rebates?

    22. Member BLK9GEN's Avatar
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      08-10-2019 04:09 PM #71
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      It's longer than that. You obviously have to pull off, find a charger, plug in and then pull back out. So it's probably more like 15 minutes a stop. Over a couple hundred miles that's gonna add up. But w/e, you got me on that. How about the ****ty payback, weak emissions reduced per kWh, the blatant politicization of EVs and the simple fact that the "inevitable" future has to be forced with mandates and rebates?
      Again I say, oh the horror!

      I used to spend about 12-15 minutes to fuel up at Costco because of the lines. And again, with an EV you can "refuel" while you are doing other things like shopping, eating out, watching a movie, and if you have a house, sleeping. You simply cannot do that with an ICE vehicle.

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      08-10-2019 04:43 PM #72
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      Again I say, oh the horror!

      I used to spend about 12-15 minutes to fuel up at Costco because of the lines. And again, with an EV you can "refuel" while you are doing other things like shopping, eating out, watching a movie, and if you have a house, sleeping. You simply cannot do that with an ICE vehicle.

      Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
      It is amazing how many so called enthusiasts are so against better vehicles because of some rather impressive mental gymnastics.
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
      Pedantry: winning arguments through exasperation since 1651. An Old World Tradition!
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    24. 08-10-2019 05:04 PM #73
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      I used to spend about 12-15 minutes to fuel up at Costco because of the lines.
      Actual bumper sticker you can purchase:



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      08-10-2019 08:57 PM #74
      Quote Originally Posted by BLK9GEN View Post
      Omg, 8 minutes for 180 miles of range (160 is on the low end) to recharge on a road trip?! The absolute horror! Use the restroom, buy a snack and you're done. Most of your "refueling" will be done when you're sleeping or doing other things at home so it's not like the vast majority of owners will be charging this way on a regular basis. For apartment dwellers this will require some planning, sure. But you can charge at the grocery store or shopping mall or movie theater and even if you have to charge at the quick charger once a week it's really not that much time.

      Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk
      I am guessing you are talking about the future since around here I have still yet to see a charging station. I checked Google and there are 4 on the local college campus and some 30 minutes away in downtown.

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      08-10-2019 08:58 PM #75
      Quote Originally Posted by NeverEnoughCars View Post
      It is amazing how many so called enthusiasts are so against better vehicles because of some rather impressive mental gymnastics.
      How are EVs objectively better for everybody?

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