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    1. Member
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      08-09-2019 11:03 AM #1
      Battery-electric price parity with internal combustion engines will be the tipping point that brings broad market acceptance for the emerging technology -- and that tipping point is closer than it may appear, said Reinhard Fischer, senior vice president for Volkswagen Group who heads strategy for VW brand in North America.

      Fischer told Automotive News Europe sister publication Automotive News at the 2019 CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Michigan that Volkswagen's $50 billion global electric push will bring new scale to EV production, pushing down costs to a point where they reach parity with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

      "We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity" that will drive new consumers to BEVs, not just early adopters.
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said.
      https://europe.autonews.com/automake...ctric-vehicles

    2. Member Uber Wagon's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:10 AM #2
      I agree with the article. I think once battery prices drive down to a point where Federal or Govt incentives may not be needed, we will have a tipping point. I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas in US, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way. But I really think battery prices will come down before high gas prices become a reality.
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      08-09-2019 11:13 AM #3
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      I agree with the article. I think once battery prices drive down to a point where Federal or Govt incentives may not be needed, we will have a tipping point. I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way. But I don't want that drastic of a change either.
      I think VW and Ford's partnership on EV will drive growth in battery production. That will lower battery costs.
      Ford, all by its MF-ing self, with the electric F150, will drastically lower battery prices.

    4. Member Uber Wagon's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:14 AM #4
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      I think VW and Ford's partnership on EV will drive growth in battery production. That will lower battery costs.
      Ford, all by its MF-ing self, with the electric F150, will drastically lower battery prices.
      Yep. VW has to push boundaries of battery development after the Dieselgate (gulp). Another tipping point for Ford would be the launch of their Electric F-150, their most popular vehicle.
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    5. Senior Member 6cylVWguy's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:30 AM #5
      That's great that cost is coming down, but it's also only one barrier that needs to be overcome. I kind of wonder when we'll be seeing this parity taking place? From the affordable car perspective, the EV Kona starts at what, $15k more than where the gas Kona starts (including AWD)? So companies like hyundai are going to suddenly drop their price to be equivalent to a more basic gas-powered version? I don't see it. BEVs will hold a premium cost for years. They may decrease relative to gas counterparts, but it will be a SLOOOOOWWWWW decline. As the volume of cars sold starts to decline, companies will look at every possible way to maintain profits and increase margins.

    6. 08-09-2019 11:43 AM #6
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas in US, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way.
      Why wait for $5 gas to begin saving money? Thanks to judicious use of public charging, now that I DD my Leaf my out-of-pocket fuel costs have dropped 99% compared to when I was driving my Suburban and Grand Prix every day. But even if I did all my charging at home, my fuel costs would still have dropped by about 90%. That is a drastic difference.

      Quote Originally Posted by 6cylVWguy View Post
      As the volume of cars sold starts to decline, companies will look at every possible way to maintain profits and increase margins.
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    7. Member Maximum_Download's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:36 AM #7
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      I agree with the article. I think once battery prices drive down to a point where Federal or Govt incentives may not be needed, we will have a tipping point. I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas in US, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way. But I really think battery prices will come down before high gas prices become a reality.
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.

      Think about it:

      1. Commoditized power (no "it has a Ferrari engine in it" or "it's a VW engine" discussion...everything uses the same basic power building blocks from suppliers)
      2. EV performance advantages (we're already seeing hybridization in supercars and sports cars, and I have yet to meet someone who has driven a Tesla NOT rave about it)
      3. EV performance advantages 2 (the ability to route power electrically using software instead of mechanical LSDs/All wheel drive systems, reduced complexity)
      4. Easier servicing (much reduced moving parts, no oil changes, easier on brakes)
      5. Home refueling (most people can use the car with ONLY recharging in their garages at night)
      6. Ease of use/driving (regen braking allowing for 1 pedal operation)
      7. EV architecture allowing for exciting new vehicle design

      I can see a whole slew of reasons why EVs will very quickly become mainstream.
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    8. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 12:14 PM #8
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.
      Agreed, although it could be 5-10 years before full EVs are cost competitive with cheap cars like the Civic & Corolla. One of the other major areas that EVs have even in very cheap form is NVH advantages. That doesn't apply so much for luxury cars and such, but most people who buy cheap cars are used to engine noise and vibration which often results in a lot of rattling and such. With less noise and vibration, you're less likely to have as many random rattles in the car too. Again, mainly a cheap car thing, but if we're talking about mass adoption, I think the advantages are even greater for cheap cars than they are for the high end cars. Even things like shift quality go away when you start talking about EVs, as there is no shifting. So somebody coming from a 7 year old economy car with a herky-jerky automatic trans going into a perfectly smooth EV will soon come to disdain anything lesser.

      Cost is absolutely the thing holding EVs back. Their advantages are real at the high end but are most pronounced at the low end. I think once the economics and volume production of batteries can handle 10+ million units a year the adoption will be very rapid.

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      08-09-2019 12:55 PM #9
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.

      Think about it:

      1. Commoditized power (no "it has a Ferrari engine in it" or "it's a VW engine" discussion...everything uses the same basic power building blocks from suppliers)
      2. EV performance advantages (we're already seeing hybridization in supercars and sports cars, and I have yet to meet someone who has driven a Tesla NOT rave about it)
      3. EV performance advantages 2 (the ability to route power electrically using software instead of mechanical LSDs/All wheel drive systems, reduced complexity)
      4. Easier servicing (much reduced moving parts, no oil changes, easier on brakes)
      5. Home refueling (most people can use the car with ONLY recharging in their garages at night)
      6. Ease of use/driving (regen braking allowing for 1 pedal operation)
      7. EV architecture allowing for exciting new vehicle design

      I can see a whole slew of reasons why EVs will very quickly become mainstream.
      Yup and to add to your #7 - EV means we don't have to be stuck with FWD vehicles anymore since the e-motors can easily be placed in RWD and/or AWD configurations - and the AWD cars as well are not going to be front heavy with an engine and diff up front. Finally freedom from FWD for the normal enthusiast.

      EVs are like digital watches, and ICE is like swiss movement. Just a matter of battery development. I believe battery costs have dropped something like 85% over the past decade and are expected to drop another 30% in the new few years.

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      08-09-2019 03:40 PM #10
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.

      Think about it:

      1. Commoditized power (no "it has a Ferrari engine in it" or "it's a VW engine" discussion...everything uses the same basic power building blocks from suppliers)
      2. EV performance advantages (we're already seeing hybridization in supercars and sports cars, and I have yet to meet someone who has driven a Tesla NOT rave about it)
      3. EV performance advantages 2 (the ability to route power electrically using software instead of mechanical LSDs/All wheel drive systems, reduced complexity)
      4. Easier servicing (much reduced moving parts, no oil changes, easier on brakes)
      5. Home refueling (most people can use the car with ONLY recharging in their garages at night)
      6. Ease of use/driving (regen braking allowing for 1 pedal operation)
      7. EV architecture allowing for exciting new vehicle design

      I can see a whole slew of reasons why EVs will very quickly become mainstream.
      There are plenty of real world disadvantages too though Why not discuss it all and determine the net balance?

      Even in your list many of the advantages are conditional or questionable... who exactly is #1 an advantage for, besides manufacturers and shareholders? #5 only counts if you have a place at home to charge. Forget an urban area like NYC- someone in a small low rise apartment complex will have problems charging their EV at home. And someone with a longer commute will need a fa$ter charger. And the skateboard design actually works against #7- look at the iD.3 vs the Golf; if anything the average car is going to get uglier or more crossoverish with the mandatory raised floors.

    11. Senior Member Jettavr666's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 01:10 PM #11
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.

      Think about it:

      1. Commoditized power (no "it has a Ferrari engine in it" or "it's a VW engine" discussion...everything uses the same basic power building blocks from suppliers)
      2. EV performance advantages (we're already seeing hybridization in supercars and sports cars, and I have yet to meet someone who has driven a Tesla NOT rave about it)
      3. EV performance advantages 2 (the ability to route power electrically using software instead of mechanical LSDs/All wheel drive systems, reduced complexity)
      4. Easier servicing (much reduced moving parts, no oil changes, easier on brakes)
      5. Home refueling (most people can use the car with ONLY recharging in their garages at night)
      6. Ease of use/driving (regen braking allowing for 1 pedal operation)
      7. EV architecture allowing for exciting new vehicle design

      I can see a whole slew of reasons why EVs will very quickly become mainstream.
      The only other issues I can see stopping EV's is long term battery life, and thats only for a small subset of the population. Also in the long run the aftermarket will take care of those issues, just like they have with Prius battery packs.

      Second is fast charging that needs to be adopted everywhere. For people that live in older cities, parking in a garage may not be an option, so easy to access fast charging stations where you can eat, or watch youtube on your phone for 30 mins, needs to be an option.

      One a side note, I am not fully sure that solid state battery EV's are the long term solution until battery recycling gets better, but obviously things have came so far in the past 10 years. If we get to the point that batteries are as easy to recycle as lead acid batteries the game is up for the majority of ICE vehicles.

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      08-14-2019 01:31 PM #12
      Quote Originally Posted by Jettavr666 View Post
      The only other issues I can see stopping EV's is long term battery life, and thats only for a small subset of the population. Also in the long run the aftermarket will take care of those issues, just like they have with Prius battery packs.

      Second is fast charging that needs to be adopted everywhere. For people that live in older cities, parking in a garage may not be an option, so easy to access fast charging stations where you can eat, or watch youtube on your phone for 30 mins, needs to be an option.

      One a side note, I am not fully sure that solid state battery EV's are the long term solution until battery recycling gets better, but obviously things have came so far in the past 10 years. If we get to the point that batteries are as easy to recycle as lead acid batteries the game is up for the majority of ICE vehicles.
      What about long-term battery life? Batteries are proving to last hundreds of thousands of miles and still work just fine only hold less charge. This is a non-issue amigo. No one can say the same about motors and transmissions. Way more work is required to get to 200k miles. A Bolt requires one coolant flush at 150k miles. Thats it.





      Fast charging as noted above is not needed everywhere. This is a fallacy. We do not need them to be as common as gas stations. not even close. As long as you can charge at home, you don't even need L2 chargers at work, starbucks, or anywhere else. I speak from experience.
      Last edited by Tommietank; 08-14-2019 at 01:33 PM.
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    13. Senior Member Jettavr666's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 01:46 PM #13
      Quote Originally Posted by Tommietank View Post
      What about long-term battery life? Batteries are proving to last hundreds of thousands of miles and still work just fine only hold less charge. This is a non-issue amigo. No one can say the same about motors and transmissions. Way more work is required to get to 200k miles. A Bolt requires one coolant flush at 150k miles. Thats it.

      Fast charging as noted above is not needed everywhere. This is a fallacy. We do not need them to be as common as gas stations. not even close. As long as you can charge at home, you don't even need L2 chargers at work, starbucks, or anywhere else. I speak from experience.
      age, and usage cycles degrade any lithium cell, so something like a full and complete discharge can brick the pack on any EV with an lithium based pack. Thats an issue. Many people park a car for months without thinking, and that can kill an electric cars battery. Pack degradation is something that has an ongoing tesla issue, although in their defense it has gotten better as time has gone one. The same cant be said for some other EV's like the leaf, and its inadequate cooling system. However again, IMO we are are looking more at a long term age based issue in many cases vs mileage and usage.

      As for "requirements" I agree and you are fully correct. EV's require vastly less maintenance, and this is one reason EV's will start to take over.

    14. 08-09-2019 12:13 PM #14
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said.
      Except new isn't always better, fact is at this time in most of the developed world EVs are not the better choice for the consumer.

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      08-09-2019 12:57 PM #15
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      Except new isn't always better, fact is at this time in most of the developed world EVs are not the better choice for the consumer.
      And at one time when the Model T was new, people were saying that about the Model T.
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      08-09-2019 01:03 PM #16
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      And at one time when the Model T was new, people were saying that about the Model T.
      ...and unleaded gasoline

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      08-09-2019 01:19 PM #17
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.

      Sure, it's going to take a while to change the bulk of the fleet, but 20 years from now if you're dailying a gasser you're going to seem antiquated. (And my car will be almost 75, so I'm already there.)
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      08-09-2019 01:40 PM #18
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.
      Is anyone saying EVs aren't coming at all? All I read and hear is that EVs are coming, once they fix a few significant areas, namely A) MUCH more charger infrastructure, and B) the range vs. hours to charge ratio. I think most people either need more range (say, 500 miles that doesn't become 300 in cold weather) or they need a recharge to take more like 15 minutes than 60.

      I don't think any of these are insurmountable, but we aren't there yet.
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    19. Senior Member 6cylVWguy's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 01:54 PM #19
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.

      Sure, it's going to take a while to change the bulk of the fleet, but 20 years from now if you're dailying a gasser you're going to seem antiquated. (And my car will be almost 75, so I'm already there.)
      I don't know what this means? Who cares? Plenty of people like antiquated stuff (as you note, you're among those people). If being considered antiquated is the only issue at stake for you, there's so much more to the EV story. Some objectively good and some of it not fully baked yet.

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      08-09-2019 01:55 PM #20
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.

      Sure, it's going to take a while to change the bulk of the fleet, but 20 years from now if you're dailying a gasser you're going to seem antiquated. (And my car will be almost 75, so I'm already there.)
      Is that why we need to move to BEVs? So strangers don't think we're "antiquated"?

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      08-14-2019 01:10 PM #21
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.

      Sure, it's going to take a while to change the bulk of the fleet, but 20 years from now if you're dailying a gasser you're going to seem antiquated. (And my car will be almost 75, so I'm already there.)
      I disagree that the bulk of the fleet will be EV even in 20 years based on some significant hurdles in infrastructure that still need to be overcome.

      I know the EV's are coming and that is fine but you can call me a naysayer and a fool for the moment. If we're still on here in 20 years one of us can bump this thread and say I told you so.

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      08-09-2019 02:06 PM #22
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      And at one time when the Model T was new, people were saying that about the Model T.
      Can you post a link to the thread where somebody said this?
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      08-09-2019 01:47 PM #23
      So... what exactly is newsworthy about this?

      Any new tech becomes more affordable as popularity increases, and economy of scale is achieved. So characterizating the tipping point as “near” depends entirely on what the person being quoted thinks that means. Is near a year from now? Five years, ten years, or just this century? I’d like a slightly more specific idea of what he meant by that.

      Or are there still a large group of people out there that think this was never going to happen?
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    24. 08-13-2019 05:26 PM #24
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      "Fischer told Automotive News Europe sister publication Automotive News at the 2019 CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Michigan that Volkswagen's $50 billion global electric push will bring new scale to EV production, pushing down costs to a point where they reach parity with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

      "We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity" that will drive new consumers to BEVs, not just early adopters.
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said."


      Sure, any company that spends $50 billion will hype it and hope that it works but that in no way is a certainty that it will. People have to want and buy what you have. There were/are plenty of vehicles that had good prices but consumers passed on them. Just because you build it doesn't guarantee they will buy it.


      Much like many EV threads here there's a rush to call the game but in reality VW has the same hill ti climb that they always did and a "hopefull" blurb and from a VP to a European publication isn't a tangible change. It's talk.

    25. 08-13-2019 05:32 PM #25
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post


      Much like many EV threads here there's a rush to call the game but in reality VW has the same hill ti climb that they always did and a "hopefull" blurb and from a VP to a European publication isn't a tangible change. It's talk.
      The arrogance is really incredible from these elitists. EU needs to be put out of its misery.

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